Jalexand42: Just a quick note about the judging... I'm optimistic there won't be any controversy in this bet the way the rules have been defined. (#83)He would turn out to be so wrong.
Chicago Joey (Joey Ingram): damn that is going to be interesting for a bunch of reasons(#46)Nearly all the posters doubted Silent_0ne but he seemed confident and Jalexand42 started collecting money.
Canoodles: If I was OP, I wouldn't take this for less than 100-1. (#18)
Chinz: Settling for 6-1 and doing it on December when lots of SNE chasers are playing really high volume... You don't seem to like money. (#218)
ChicagoJoey [Joey Ingram]: lol trainwreck (#392)But some posters really believed in him and were rooting hard:
MinSixBet: are you still taking action? (#399)
Eaglesfan1: Forget about the leaderboard and focus on your game and playing ur best. (#406)However things got worse and Silent_one seemed to be losing hope, on day 4 he posted this:
Silent_0ne: just got ownedDay 5 and Silent_0ne was doing better but was down a few buy ins, still far behind his target. Remember, he needs to be number one in profit in the massive 2010 pool of 100nl Pokerstars players. He posted this astonishing hand:
bad rly bad "hero call" for big pot
set of 8s < set of As
KK < AK
bad river bluff shove
set of 6s < str
10s < Js
AK < AA
AK on AK6 board < 66
AA < 99 on 974 board
^ all greater than 200 big blind pots
could have prevented half of those if I didnt suck so much (#410)
As you can see, 2010 was truly an amazing place for online poker.Silent_0ne: $568.55 UTG+1: $444.30 UTG+2: $519.10 MP1: $226.75 Hero (MP2): $257.70 CO: $250.00 BTN: $100.00 SB: $257.70 BB: $120.90
Pre Flop: ($3.30) Silent_0ne is MP2 with 9h9c
Silent_0ne raises to $4.80, UTG+1 raises to $18.60, 1 fold, MP1 calls $18.60, 5 folds, Silent_0ne calls $13.80
Flop: ($59.10) 2h8s5s(3 players)
Silent_0ne checks, UTG+1 bets $32, MP1 folds, Silent_0ne raises to $92, UTG+1 calls $60
Turn: ($243.10) Kc (2 players)
Silent_0ne checks, UTG+1 checks
River: ($243.10) 4s (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $127, UTG+1 raises to $333.50 all in, Silent_0ne calls $206.50
Final Pot: $910.10
Silent_0ne shows 9h9c (a pair of Nines)
UTG+1 shows 9dJc (high card King)
Silent_0ne wins $907.10
DPred123: wtf at those HHs. (#520)Here are two of the hands he posted:
Transa: LoLolLololooLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL (#521)
and:Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 9 players
Pre Flop: ($3.30) MP1: $365.20 Hero (CO): $342.35 Silent_0ne is CO with 7s7d
3 folds, MP1 raises to $4, 1 fold, Silent_0ne raises to $15.50, 3 folds, MP1 raises to $41.90, Silent_0ne raises to $342.15 all in, MP1 calls $300.25
Flop: ($687.60) ThKc6s(2 players - 1 is all in)
Turn: ($687.60) Ts (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($687.60) 2h (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $687.60
MP1 shows AcAh (two pair, Aces and Tens)
Silent_0ne explained:Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 3 players
BTN: $656.85 Silent_0ne(SB): $288.00 BB: $345.00
Pre Flop: ($2.10) Silent_0ne is SB with 4d4h
BTN raises to $3, Silent_0ne raises to $12, 1 fold, BTN calls $9
Flop: ($25.60) 3h6d5s(2 players)
Silent_0ne checks, BTN bets $18, Silent_0ne raises to $275.80 all in, BTN calls $257.80
Turn: ($577.20) Js (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($577.20) 9c (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $577.20
BTN shows 3d5d (two pair, Fives and Threes)
Hero Silent_0ne 4h4h (a pair of Fours)
BTN wins $576.20
Silent_0ne: barely ate anything last few days. i just get up and play, dont prepare anything. im playing right now btw. down around 2700$ for the month. im really dumb for spewing off 3k+ just cause i was tilted/ran bad, and snapped. another problem that people overlook is the extra attention i get at the tables for doing this prop bet. lots of regs can exploit my plays and then all tend to focus on owning me. (#554)Silent_0ne had started the month on a $3k downswing, then won $2.5k before going on another $3k downswing in just one week. He must have felt desperate as after an hour and a half Silent_0ne had an idea and events took a shocking turn:
Silent_0ne: any interested if i give up 100nl and start tomorrow on day 7 at 50nl to try and get the badge there for 6 to 1. i wanna gamble and break even on the month, so im willing to put up 5k on this if any1 is interested? (#570)This new bet must have seemed too good to be true. At this point he had been relentlessly grinding 100nl for a week, was losing badly, he was tilting, was likely playing more tables than he can handle and he’s a week behind getting to the top of the 50nl leaderboard. The bets started to pour in and within an hour he had 7 people place action. The community commented:
Absurd: This is adsurd (#601)Everyone on the thread couldn’t believe what they reading, However, Silent_0ne seemed to accept that the 100nl bet was dead and he wasn’t getting the $67k prop bet win. He was willing to pay the $11k out and enter a new prop bet. Now, being the Ultimate Grinder at 50nl is his goal. Again, the bets were substantial and he had 8:1 odds in his favour for being the Ultimate Grinder for December at 50nl. The same day he made the new bet, he started at 50nl and was off.
jalexand42: Seriously, take a day to cool off. (#599)
King Fish: I'd be interested but highly advise you to reconsider this and maybe take an hour and step back. Edit: will take $1800 to your $300 assuming same judge and escrow. (#574)
loK2thabrain: I call dibs on first bet when he moves down to win the 25nl badge. (#700)
Fees i'll take all the action, PM me (#746)Fees booked action late and the details of this booking were not listed in the thread. The next day, Fees acts a question about the rules:
Fees: what if kerpowski or jeffmet wins the ugl and he gets second? (#878)Kerpowski and Jeffmet are players who took action against Silent_0ne. They are also 50/100nl grinders. The case of fellow grinders taking action was covered in the rules. A poster quotes the rules and informs Fees that they have to be existing 50nl/100nl grinders. Fees then asks the following question:
Fees: i think that implies at the same tables as him, but what if they just play completely different games and just win the ugl?Remember these probing questions, they’ll become relevant later.
Silent_0ne: just finished 11 hour session, too tired to post anything, ill go to bed for a couple hours then post graphs/hands when i wake up. was tilted throughout entire session, played 12k hands...eyes burn...ran bad for once (6 buyins below ev)He also posted eight hands that looked pretty spewy, here is one of them:
Even people taking action against him gave him advice:Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em $0.10 Ante - 5 players BB: $50.00 UTG: $103.40 CO: $137.65 BTN: $133.00 Silent_0ne (SB): $144.60
Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is SB with AdQh
1 fold, CO raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, Silent_0ne calls $1.25, BB calls $1
Flop: ($6.50) 6c6d6s(4 players)
Silent_0ne checks, BB checks, CO bets $4, BTN folds, Silent_0ne raises to $14.75, BB folds, CO calls $10.75
Turn: ($36.00) 8h (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $25.75, CO calls $25.75
River: ($87.50) 4d (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $102.50 all in, CO calls $95.55 all in
Final Pot: $278.60
CO shows JdJc (a full house, Sixes full of Jacks)
Silent_0ne shows AdQh (three of a kind, Sixes)
CO wins $276.60
King Fish: I am speechless … It's NL50. Stop trying to get so fancy. (#1038)But then, Silent_0ne has an explosive session and is up an incredible $2800 in one day, that’s 56 buy ins! The posters go wild as he moves into 3rd place on the 50nl Ultimate Grinder leaderboard:
Fees: still taking action, I want 2:1Despite Silent_0ne being top of the leaderboard when he posted this and Fees already buying action Fees seemed willing to take 2:1 in Silent_0ne’s favour.
tightmaniac: fees is 4thIt is revealed that Fees who is normally a 2000nl player is playing 50nl HU and is 4th on the leaderboard. HU 50nl still counts towards the 50nl leaderboard. With the higher rate of hands of HU, bigger winrates of HU and Fees' skill, it could mean he would soon reach the top of the leaderboard. 10 minutes after TightManic’s post Fees lowers his odds:
Fees: Looking to take action on this at 1:1 (#1180)The judge weighs in:
Jalexand42: If fees' didn't disclose this to whoever has his action, it's obviously pretty questionable, although that probably should have been asked. As far as the prop bet tho, I specifically asked Silent whether HU players should be included/excluded and he said included. The rules clearly don't exclude some random player from dropping down and playing $50nl (or $100nl for the original bet). They DO clearly state that people who bet against Silent one as part of the prop bet are NOT allowed to interfere with the bet, but I don't have anything to do with whatever side action fees may have on this. I told kerpowski last night that I didn't want him to play HU to try to win the badge, since I felt like it was a gray area in the intent of the rules (since he obviously doesn't normally play those stakes).As of the 15 December Silent_0ne was still top of the board with $4.4k and most posters were expressing their displeasure if Fees were to continue playing 50nl. Silent_0ne drops this bombshell:
Kind of sucks for OP if this is going on, but I can't really change the rules after it's started since that would affect the people that bet against Silent. (#1196)
Silent_0ne: ‘2. Actions must be in accordance with the intent of having a fair prop bet. No actions (chip dumping, collusion, ghosting/coaching players on Silent_0ne's tables, etc) can be taken with the intent to affect the outcome of the prop bet. Violations will result in the violator's action being forfeited and may result in additional modification/extention to neutralize the interference.’ [Silent_0ne is quoting the rules here.] ‘The spirit of the bet is that OP is competing against players who 'really' play NL100, both ring and heads up.’Silent_0ne posted that he did a deal, off with main thread with 10 to 1 odds (Fees betting $25k to Silent_0ne’s $2.5k that Silent_0ne will win ultimate grinder 50nl) with Fees and that WCGRider (Doug Polk, currently of Upswing Poker and poker Youtube fame) is the escrow, not Jalexand42. Most posters now seem outraged:
I know a friend of Fees and his friend said he was legit and everything. alittle after the bet started and action was full, fees approached me and my friend about taking additional action at 10 to 1. my friend and I took an additional 2.5k to his 25k and escrowed to wcgrider. the bet was under the assumption that the same rules as the 100nl bet were going to be used, and whatever the judge decides would be final.
so given the quotes above, it is against the rules that someone betting against me should also be able to compete against me given that he does not regularly play at 50nl (he plays 6max 2knl and WON the UGL badge last month at that stake) also, im not allowed to play 50nl HU which is really fishy and easy to win the UGL badge at if you put in enough volume.
regardless of if fees action is with Jalex or not, i think the same rules apply, because he is not a regular at the stakes and he accepted the same rules when making the bet with my friend and I going to eat something then start up a grind session, hopefully I continue to crush and run good, though my heart has sunk when I looked at fees in forth, and I feel ill and tilted (#1205)
King Fish: Wow what an angle shoot by Fees on this. This does help define the measure of what type of person he is that he is even attempting it. (#1207)Some of the posters were trying to play Fees at the 50nl in attempt to slow down his winning streak and tell Fees that he is breaking the rules. Silent_0ne expressed his displeasure and downed mental state:
Tumaterminator: sickest hustle ever. (#1210)
kp1022: wait, doeboyfre$h is fees?
he sat me in 50nl HU a few days ago FWIW
after PTR'ing him , i asked why was he playing so low? he replied, "busto" (#1234)
Silent_0ne: this is horrible. im going to start my first grind right now. imo what fees is doing is against the rules and is unfair. i really hope i dont lose alot right now, but im in a pretty poor emotional stateFor the first time in a few days Fees posts:
please whoever is decent, sit it up with fees and discouarge him to continue what hes doing. 2knl player won badge last month, makes big bet against me and decides to compete for 50nl badge against me... (#1267)
Fees: Hey,Then, an enflamed debate about the rules erupts, almost every poster is furious at Fees
Just to clear a few things up,
- I haven't broken any rules, there isn't a rule that explicitly states that I cannot win the UGL.
- I'm not trying to scam/do anything shady/etc, when I made the bet I posted in this thread asking if a bettor could win the UGL […] anyway I'm going to try and win the 50nl UGL this month... I haven't done anything wrong and there is nothing wrong with me going for it.
Silent_0ne: had a conversation with WCGRider over the phone. the assumption was that jalex is the judge of this bet, and his word is final. WCGRider is simply just an escrow. fees and I agreed on the rules of the bet and having jalex of the judge. #1352Then WCGRider (Doug Polk) posts for the first time:
WCGRider: Wanted to make a quick post here because i talked to colin earlier about this and i want to clear up a few things.jalexand42 then posts his judgment in a lengthy post (#1526) but I believe this excerpt sums it up:
First off, I was never told i was going to be an escrow. I literally woke up with colins [Silent_0ne] money in my account. I was never asked anything, I was never told anything, I just was sent the money and thats it.
So now im being brought into this to make a decision, which i dont think really is fair. I haven't read any of this thread, I haven't read the rules. Also, fees has to be one of my best friends here in las vegas, and I want that to be clear before i give my opinion about this. I think its sort of unfair that i get put into this situation.
jalexand42: So, while it is not UNFAIR of fees to be playing $50nl, he has CLEARLY taken actions that will influence the outcome of the bet IF he wins the UGL for $50nl for December. Fees would clearly NOT be playing $50nl (and in fact is still playing his normal stakes) if he didn't have action on this bet. Fees also clearly understood this was a questionable area with regard to the rules based on his posts in this thread and he did not clarify it with the judge. He posts also indicate clearly that he felt he was subject to the rules. Therefore, I rule that Fees' standing on the UGL for December WILL BE IGNORED for purposes of determining this bet if he wins.Many posters praise Jalexand42. But Jalexand42 does not have the money from the sidebet between Silent_0ne and Fees. WCGrider does. Silent_0ne gives his piece of mind and a quick poker update:
Silent_0ne: yes, i agree with this [Jalexand42's judgment].Then, another bombshell drops, a friend of WCRrider’s reveals that Fees didn’t even escrow his money to Doug:
also, fees can keep the 25k in the bet without any forfiet. im just really happy things worked out okay.
however i probably should have read this before my session I just played. probably wouldnt have spewed as much at the endodays been my worst day since the start of the 50nl bet so far. gonna play 1 more session later tonight and going to be in alot better and focused mood (#1561)
Handbaggio: LOL wtf, fees hasn't escrowed his bet??? (#1676)Jalexand42 has a conversation with WCGRider to reach an agreement and reports:
rnb0sprnkles: LOL and when I thought the drama was starting to die down, the thread gets even crazier (#1698)
Jalexand42: Okay, so here's the summary of my conversation with WCGRider:Back to actual poker and Silent_0ne reports a bad losing session on the 16th December citing all the ongoing drama:
- He is only holding Silent & the_most's action, $2,500.
- He did talk to Fees. Fees told him he was going to talk to Colin [Silent_0ne] today and 'hopes to work out something reasonable'.
- I asked what that means, he said he didn't feel like he could tell me, because he felt like what Fees told him was as a friend, but that it sounded fair in WCGRider's opinion.
- WCGRider said he thought my decision making sounded reasonable.
- WCGrider said that noone told him what to do, so he figured he was just holding on to Silent's money.
- I told WCGrider I was willing for him to ship me the $2.5k now if he was feeling uncomfortable, he said he'd wait to see what Silent & Fees work out. ( #1703)
Silent_0ne: 22 buyin downswing im playing really bad right now, and I really wish I didn't have to think about and deal with all these other problems.The community are rooting really hard to him at this point and are all telling him to stay strong. Things start to get messy when Jalexand42 speaks with WCGRider and Fees and in a long post ( #1957) said that WCGRider protested his participation was unfair and Jalexand42 accused him of not of not already sending the $25k to Jalexand42. Fees also tried to offer Silent_0ne a $1k buy out saying it was ‘super generous’, it was refused. Silent_0ne states that the reason fees doesn't want his money escrowed by Jalexand42 is that he is afraid that his bet will be forfeited due to breaking the rules. WCGRider chimed in to defend himself (he also spoke about playing 50nl-100nl and having a rough year, which is interesting as he developed into the top HU player for a time and couldn’t get action, even at the highest stakes.) The 2+2 community then debate and lightly harass WCGRider and Fees to concede and send the money to Jalexand42. Fees finally agrees to a 50% buyout.
Silent_0ne : Hello everyoneSo, in the end all the parties involved reached a buyout agreement on the 50nl prop bet. Silent_0ne would stop playing the 50nl prop bet and would be up $20k. The community replies:
firstly, I would like to say thank you so much to everyone who supported me throughout this bet. i cant stress how much it meant to me to see any post wishing me goodluck, or someone pming me given me some life lessons and more encouragement.
ive been approached by the bettors on numerous occasions regarding a buyout. the original buyout deal offered was 33%. eventually 37% was offered, and then 44%, and finally I agreed on 50% of total wagers from all 6 bettors as their buyout.
I am not really satisfied with a buyout, and I was not the one originally looking for the buyout. the bettors wanted it and I decided to see what they had to offer. what I wanted was time to spend with friends and family throughout the christmas break. With continuing this bet, I do have alot of confidence of accomplishing it, but at the expense of isolation through one of the most special times of each year. My family was mad at me when I tried explaining to them I probably wouldn't be able to particpate in any family events and have much if any celebration of christmas.
my goal the next 14 days was to just grind it out 10 hours each day with breaks inbetween, and sleep. Instead I will be able to go back to my regular, stress free grinding, and shipping 50% of the total wagers after half the month as gone by. In the end, including both the 100nl and 50nl prop bets, I made a net of roughly +20k. The other two options would be risking a net of -20k or a net of +60k. I took the variance free route, and all the bettors did the same thing. None of us wanted to lose the bet obviously, so I think we worked out a fair resolution with this buyout.
I have no hard feelings against fees or wcg rider. Perhaps a different scenerio would have occured if the recent issues did not occur, but thats in the past now and i'm looking forwards to a postive future. (#2511)
Ditch Digger: Silent, nice job. 50% is more than reasonable. (#2516)Link to original thread.
kelnel: gg on +20k, u rocked!! (#2520)
shhhnake_eyes: I call this the most anticlimactic finish ever. (#2522)
Jalexand42: Just a quick note about the judging... I'm optimistic there won't be any controversy in this bet the way the rules have been defined. (#83)He would turn out to be so wrong.
Chicago Joey (Joey Ingram): damn that is going to be interesting for a bunch of reasons(#46)Nearly all the posters doubted Silent_0ne but he seemed confident and Jalexand42 started collecting money.
Canoodles: If I was OP, I wouldn't take this for less than 100-1. (#18)
Chinz: Settling for 6-1 and doing it on December when lots of SNE chasers are playing really high volume... You don't seem to like money. (#218)
ChicagoJoey [Joey Ingram]: lol trainwreck (#392)But some posters really believed in him and were rooting hard:
MinSixBet: are you still taking action? (#399)
Eaglesfan1: Forget about the leaderboard and focus on your game and playing ur best. (#406)However things got worse and Silent_one seemed to be losing hope, on day 4 he posted this:
Silent_0ne: just got ownedDay 5 and Silent_0ne was doing better but was down a few buy ins, still far behind his target. Remember, he needs to be number one in profit in the massive 2010 pool of 100nl Pokerstars players. He posted this astonishing hand:
bad rly bad "hero call" for big pot
set of 8s < set of As
KK < AK
bad river bluff shove
set of 6s < str
10s < Js
AK < AA
AK on AK6 board < 66
AA < 99 on 974 board
^ all greater than 200 big blind pots
could have prevented half of those if I didnt suck so much (#410)
As you can see, 2010 was truly an amazing place for online poker.Silent_0ne: $568.55 UTG+1: $444.30 UTG+2: $519.10 MP1: $226.75 Hero (MP2): $257.70 CO: $250.00 BTN: $100.00 SB: $257.70 BB: $120.90
Pre Flop: ($3.30) Silent_0ne is MP2 with 9h9c
Silent_0ne raises to $4.80, UTG+1 raises to $18.60, 1 fold, MP1 calls $18.60, 5 folds, Silent_0ne calls $13.80
Flop: ($59.10) 2h8s5s(3 players)
Silent_0ne checks, UTG+1 bets $32, MP1 folds, Silent_0ne raises to $92, UTG+1 calls $60
Turn: ($243.10) Kc (2 players)
Silent_0ne checks, UTG+1 checks
River: ($243.10) 4s (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $127, UTG+1 raises to $333.50 all in, Silent_0ne calls $206.50
Final Pot: $910.10
Silent_0ne shows 9h9c (a pair of Nines)
UTG+1 shows 9dJc (high card King)
Silent_0ne wins $907.10
DPred123: wtf at those HHs. (#520)Here are two of the hands he posted:
Transa: LoLolLololooLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL (#521)
and:Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 9 players
Pre Flop: ($3.30) MP1: $365.20 Hero (CO): $342.35 Silent_0ne is CO with 7s7d
3 folds, MP1 raises to $4, 1 fold, Silent_0ne raises to $15.50, 3 folds, MP1 raises to $41.90, Silent_0ne raises to $342.15 all in, MP1 calls $300.25
Flop: ($687.60) ThKc6s(2 players - 1 is all in)
Turn: ($687.60) Ts
River: ($687.60) 2h (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $687.60
MP1 shows AcAh (two pair, Aces and Tens)
Silent_0ne explained:Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 3 players
BTN: $656.85 Silent_0ne(SB): $288.00 BB: $345.00
Pre Flop: ($2.10) Silent_0ne is SB with 4d4h
BTN raises to $3, Silent_0ne raises to $12, 1 fold, BTN calls $9
Flop: ($25.60) 3h6d5s(2 players)
Silent_0ne checks, BTN bets $18, Silent_0ne raises to $275.80 all in, BTN calls $257.80
Turn: ($577.20) Js (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($577.20) 9c (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $577.20
BTN shows 3d5d (two pair, Fives and Threes)
Hero Silent_0ne 4h4h (a pair of Fours)
BTN wins $576.20
Silent_0ne: barely ate anything last few days. i just get up and play, dont prepare anything. im playing right now btw. down around 2700$ for the month. im really dumb for spewing off 3k+ just cause i was tilted/ran bad, and snapped. another problem that people overlook is the extra attention i get at the tables for doing this prop bet. lots of regs can exploit my plays and then all tend to focus on owning me. (#554)Silent_0ne had started the month on a $3k downswing, then won $2.5k before going on another $3k downswing in just one week. He must have felt desperate as after an hour and a half Silent_0ne had an idea and events took a shocking turn:
Silent_0ne: any interested if i give up 100nl and start tomorrow on day 7 at 50nl to try and get the badge there for 6 to 1. i wanna gamble and break even on the month, so im willing to put up 5k on this if any1 is interested? (#570)This new bet must have seemed too good to be true. At this point he had been relentlessly grinding 100nl for a week, was losing badly, he was tilting, was likely playing more tables than he can handle and he’s a week behind getting to the top of the 50nl leaderboard. The bets started to pour in and within an hour he had 7 people place action. The community commented:
Absurd: This is adsurd (#601)Everyone on the thread couldn’t believe what they reading, However, Silent_0ne seemed to accept that the 100nl bet was dead and he wasn’t getting the $67k prop bet win. He was willing to pay the $11k out and enter a new prop bet. Now, being the Ultimate Grinder at 50nl is his goal. Again, the bets were substantial and he had 8:1 odds in his favour for being the Ultimate Grinder for December at 50nl. The same day he made the new bet, he started at 50nl and was off.
jalexand42: Seriously, take a day to cool off. (#599)
King Fish: I'd be interested but highly advise you to reconsider this and maybe take an hour and step back. Edit: will take $1800 to your $300 assuming same judge and escrow. (#574)
loK2thabrain: I call dibs on first bet when he moves down to win the 25nl badge. (#700)
Fees i'll take all the action, PM me (#746)Fees booked action late and the details of this booking were not listed in the thread. The next day, Fees acts a question about the rules:
Fees: what if kerpowski or jeffmet wins the ugl and he gets second? (#878)Kerpowski and Jeffmet are players who took action against Silent_0ne. They are also 50/100nl grinders. The case of fellow grinders taking action was covered in the rules. A poster quotes the rules and informs Fees that they have to be existing 50nl/100nl grinders. Fees then asks the following question:
Fees: i think that implies at the same tables as him, but what if they just play completely different games and just win the ugl?Remember these probing questions, they’ll become relevant later.
Silent_0ne: just finished 11 hour session, too tired to post anything, ill go to bed for a couple hours then post graphs/hands when i wake up. was tilted throughout entire session, played 12k hands...eyes burn...ran bad for once (6 buyins below ev)He also posted eight hands that looked pretty spewy, here is one of them:
Even people taking action against him gave him advice:Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em $0.10 Ante - 5 players BB: $50.00 UTG: $103.40 CO: $137.65 BTN: $133.00 Silent_0ne (SB): $144.60
Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is SB with AdQh
1 fold, CO raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, Silent_0ne calls $1.25, BB calls $1
Flop: ($6.50) 6c6d6s(4 players)
Silent_0ne checks, BB checks, CO bets $4, BTN folds, Silent_0ne raises to $14.75, BB folds, CO calls $10.75
Turn: ($36.00) 8h (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $25.75, CO calls $25.75
River: ($87.50) 4d (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $102.50 all in, CO calls $95.55 all in
Final Pot: $278.60
CO shows JdJc (a full house, Sixes full of Jacks)
Silent_0ne shows AdQh (three of a kind, Sixes)
CO wins $276.60
King Fish: I am speechless … It's NL50. Stop trying to get so fancy. (#1038)But then, Silent_0ne has an explosive session and is up an incredible $2800 in one day, that’s 56 buy ins! The posters go wild as he moves into 3rd place on the 50nl Ultimate Grinder leaderboard:
Fees: still taking action, I want 2:1Despite Silent_0ne being top of the leaderboard when he posted this and Fees already buying action Fees seemed willing to take 2:1 in Silent_0ne’s favour.
tightmaniac: fees is 4thIt is revealed that Fees who is normally a 2000nl player is playing 50nl HU and is 4th on the leaderboard. HU 50nl still counts towards the 50nl leaderboard. With the higher rate of hands of HU, bigger winrates of HU and Fees' skill, it could mean he would soon reach the top of the leaderboard. 10 minutes after TightManic’s post Fees lowers his odds:
Fees: Looking to take action on this at 1:1 (#1180)The judge weighs in:
Jalexand42: If fees' didn't disclose this to whoever has his action, it's obviously pretty questionable, although that probably should have been asked. As far as the prop bet tho, I specifically asked Silent whether HU players should be included/excluded and he said included. The rules clearly don't exclude some random player from dropping down and playing $50nl (or $100nl for the original bet). They DO clearly state that people who bet against Silent one as part of the prop bet are NOT allowed to interfere with the bet, but I don't have anything to do with whatever side action fees may have on this. I told kerpowski last night that I didn't want him to play HU to try to win the badge, since I felt like it was a gray area in the intent of the rules (since he obviously doesn't normally play those stakes).As of the 15 December Silent_0ne was still top of the board with $4.4k and most posters were expressing their displeasure if Fees were to continue playing 50nl. Silent_0ne drops this bombshell:
Kind of sucks for OP if this is going on, but I can't really change the rules after it's started since that would affect the people that bet against Silent. (#1196)
Silent_0ne: ‘2. Actions must be in accordance with the intent of having a fair prop bet. No actions (chip dumping, collusion, ghosting/coaching players on Silent_0ne's tables, etc) can be taken with the intent to affect the outcome of the prop bet. Violations will result in the violator's action being forfeited and may result in additional modification/extention to neutralize the interference.’ [Silent_0ne is quoting the rules here.] ‘The spirit of the bet is that OP is competing against players who 'really' play NL100, both ring and heads up.’Silent_0ne posted that he did a deal, off with main thread with 10 to 1 odds (Fees betting $25k to Silent_0ne’s $2.5k that Silent_0ne will win ultimate grinder 50nl) with Fees and that WCGRider (Doug Polk, currently of Upswing Poker and poker Youtube fame) is the escrow, not Jalexand42. Most posters now seem outraged:
I know a friend of Fees and his friend said he was legit and everything. alittle after the bet started and action was full, fees approached me and my friend about taking additional action at 10 to 1. my friend and I took an additional 2.5k to his 25k and escrowed to wcgrider. the bet was under the assumption that the same rules as the 100nl bet were going to be used, and whatever the judge decides would be final.
so given the quotes above, it is against the rules that someone betting against me should also be able to compete against me given that he does not regularly play at 50nl (he plays 6max 2knl and WON the UGL badge last month at that stake) also, im not allowed to play 50nl HU which is really fishy and easy to win the UGL badge at if you put in enough volume.
regardless of if fees action is with Jalex or not, i think the same rules apply, because he is not a regular at the stakes and he accepted the same rules when making the bet with my friend and I going to eat something then start up a grind session, hopefully I continue to crush and run good, though my heart has sunk when I looked at fees in forth, and I feel ill and tilted (#1205)
King Fish: Wow what an angle shoot by Fees on this. This does help define the measure of what type of person he is that he is even attempting it. (#1207)Some of the posters were trying to play Fees at the 50nl in attempt to slow down his winning streak and tell Fees that he is breaking the rules. Silent_0ne expressed his displeasure and downed mental state:
Tumaterminator: sickest hustle ever. (#1210)
kp1022: wait, doeboyfre$h is fees?
he sat me in 50nl HU a few days ago FWIW
after PTR'ing him , i asked why was he playing so low? he replied, "busto" (#1234)
Silent_0ne: this is horrible. im going to start my first grind right now. imo what fees is doing is against the rules and is unfair. i really hope i dont lose alot right now, but im in a pretty poor emotional stateFor the first time in a few days Fees posts:
please whoever is decent, sit it up with fees and discouarge him to continue what hes doing. 2knl player won badge last month, makes big bet against me and decides to compete for 50nl badge against me... (#1267)
Fees: Hey,Then, an enflamed debate about the rules erupts, almost every poster is furious at Fees
Just to clear a few things up,
- I haven't broken any rules, there isn't a rule that explicitly states that I cannot win the UGL.
- I'm not trying to scam/do anything shady/etc, when I made the bet I posted in this thread asking if a bettor could win the UGL […] anyway I'm going to try and win the 50nl UGL this month... I haven't done anything wrong and there is nothing wrong with me going for it.
Silent_0ne: had a conversation with WCGRider over the phone. the assumption was that jalex is the judge of this bet, and his word is final. WCGRider is simply just an escrow. fees and I agreed on the rules of the bet and having jalex of the judge. #1352Then WCGRider (Doug Polk) posts for the first time:
WCGRider: Wanted to make a quick post here because i talked to colin earlier about this and i want to clear up a few things.jalexand42 then posts his judgment in a lengthy post (#1526) but I believe this excerpt sums it up:
First off, I was never told i was going to be an escrow. I literally woke up with colins [Silent_0ne] money in my account. I was never asked anything, I was never told anything, I just was sent the money and thats it.
So now im being brought into this to make a decision, which i dont think really is fair. I haven't read any of this thread, I haven't read the rules. Also, fees has to be one of my best friends here in las vegas, and I want that to be clear before i give my opinion about this. I think its sort of unfair that i get put into this situation.
jalexand42: So, while it is not UNFAIR of fees to be playing $50nl, he has CLEARLY taken actions that will influence the outcome of the bet IF he wins the UGL for $50nl for December. Fees would clearly NOT be playing $50nl (and in fact is still playing his normal stakes) if he didn't have action on this bet. Fees also clearly understood this was a questionable area with regard to the rules based on his posts in this thread and he did not clarify it with the judge. He posts also indicate clearly that he felt he was subject to the rules. Therefore, I rule that Fees' standing on the UGL for December WILL BE IGNORED for purposes of determining this bet if he wins.Many posters praise Jalexand42. But Jalexand42 does not have the money from the sidebet between Silent_0ne and Fees. WCGrider does. Silent_0ne gives his piece of mind and a quick poker update:
Silent_0ne: yes, i agree with this [Jalexand42's judgment].Then, another bombshell drops, a friend of WCRrider’s reveals that Fees didn’t even escrow his money to Doug:
also, fees can keep the 25k in the bet without any forfiet. im just really happy things worked out okay.
however i probably should have read this before my session I just played. probably wouldnt have spewed as much at the endodays been my worst day since the start of the 50nl bet so far. gonna play 1 more session later tonight and going to be in alot better and focused mood (#1561)
Handbaggio: LOL wtf, fees hasn't escrowed his bet??? (#1676)Jalexand42 has a conversation with WCGRider to reach an agreement and reports:
rnb0sprnkles: LOL and when I thought the drama was starting to die down, the thread gets even crazier (#1698)
Jalexand42: Okay, so here's the summary of my conversation with WCGRider:Back to actual poker and Silent_0ne reports a bad losing session on the 16th December citing all the ongoing drama:
- He is only holding Silent & the_most's action, $2,500.
- He did talk to Fees. Fees told him he was going to talk to Colin [Silent_0ne] today and 'hopes to work out something reasonable'.
- I asked what that means, he said he didn't feel like he could tell me, because he felt like what Fees told him was as a friend, but that it sounded fair in WCGRider's opinion.
- WCGRider said he thought my decision making sounded reasonable.
- WCGrider said that noone told him what to do, so he figured he was just holding on to Silent's money.
- I told WCGrider I was willing for him to ship me the $2.5k now if he was feeling uncomfortable, he said he'd wait to see what Silent & Fees work out. ( #1703)
Silent_0ne: 22 buyin downswing im playing really bad right now, and I really wish I didn't have to think about and deal with all these other problems.The community are rooting really hard to him at this point and are all telling him to stay strong. Things start to get messy when Jalexand42 speaks with WCGRider and Fees and in a long post ( #1957) said that WCGRider protested his participation was unfair and Jalexand42 accused him of not of not already sending the $25k to Jalexand42. Fees also tried to offer Silent_0ne a $1k buy out saying it was ‘super generous’, it was refused. Silent_0ne states that the reason fees doesn't want his money escrowed by Jalexand42 is that he is afraid that his bet will be forfeited due to breaking the rules. WCGRider chimed in to defend himself (he also spoke about playing 50nl-100nl and having a rough year, which is interesting as he developed into the top HU player for a time and couldn’t get action, even at the highest stakes.) The 2+2 community then debate and lightly harass WCGRider and Fees to concede and send the money to Jalexand42. Fees finally agrees to a 50% buyout.
Silent_0ne : Hello everyoneSo, in the end all the parties involved reached a buyout agreement on the 50nl prop bet. Silent_0ne would stop playing the 50nl prop bet and would be up $20k. The community replies:
firstly, I would like to say thank you so much to everyone who supported me throughout this bet. i cant stress how much it meant to me to see any post wishing me goodluck, or someone pming me given me some life lessons and more encouragement.
ive been approached by the bettors on numerous occasions regarding a buyout. the original buyout deal offered was 33%. eventually 37% was offered, and then 44%, and finally I agreed on 50% of total wagers from all 6 bettors as their buyout.
I am not really satisfied with a buyout, and I was not the one originally looking for the buyout. the bettors wanted it and I decided to see what they had to offer. what I wanted was time to spend with friends and family throughout the christmas break. With continuing this bet, I do have alot of confidence of accomplishing it, but at the expense of isolation through one of the most special times of each year. My family was mad at me when I tried explaining to them I probably wouldn't be able to particpate in any family events and have much if any celebration of christmas.
my goal the next 14 days was to just grind it out 10 hours each day with breaks inbetween, and sleep. Instead I will be able to go back to my regular, stress free grinding, and shipping 50% of the total wagers after half the month as gone by. In the end, including both the 100nl and 50nl prop bets, I made a net of roughly +20k. The other two options would be risking a net of -20k or a net of +60k. I took the variance free route, and all the bettors did the same thing. None of us wanted to lose the bet obviously, so I think we worked out a fair resolution with this buyout.
I have no hard feelings against fees or wcg rider. Perhaps a different scenerio would have occured if the recent issues did not occur, but thats in the past now and i'm looking forwards to a postive future. (#2511)
Ditch Digger: Silent, nice job. 50% is more than reasonable. (#2516)Link to original thread.
kelnel: gg on +20k, u rocked!! (#2520)
shhhnake_eyes: I call this the most anticlimactic finish ever. (#2522)
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/rvtksaw21t841.jpg?width=698&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=95f40678737a0b6412efeddec62890674d6b9f4c NFL Regular Season Betting Recap Singles 134-141-3 (+12.57u) Parlays: 9-15 (+85.66u) Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-19 (-19.98u) Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-15 (-7.5u) Teasers: 7-23 (-39.1u) Overall Bet Win/Loss: 150-213 Units Win/Loss: +31.65u ROI: 8.72% Thoughts: Honestly, I thought this season could have gone much better. Of course I am happy with a positive ROI and almost 9% is great but I want double digit ROIs. There are many lessons that I have learned this year that will go into my adjustments of how I make wagers. I am also grateful to collect a ton of notes from this years regular season that I will use as positive adjustments in my algo for next year. I still have the playoffs to push my ROI into the double digits. NBA was the same, went 2.6% ROI in the REG season, and almost 33% ROI in the playoffs to bring the whole season to double digits. Time to get to work on the NFL playoffs and make this double digi happen! https://preview.redd.it/mis03ly81t841.jpg?width=810&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6ca4a87379c6397b507f1ba420b546baaf39f552 Saturday Games (AFC) Interesting note: Over the last 15 years in the playoffs, the spread didn't matter 82% of the time. If you picked the game winner, they covered over 82%. In the wild card round its 89%!!! Focus on finding the winner. Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-2.5): We have our first game of the weekend and it's the only game where the spread has moved through a key number. This started out as HOU -3 (-3.5 in some spots for a brief opening line) and has moved quickly to settle at -2.5. The other games have moved, but none through a key 3, 4, 6 or 7. My algo has this game as 22.5 BUF to 19.5 HOU. When you add in HFA it pushes this game close to a PK. A huge key for me in this game will be the health of Will Fuller. With him in the offense this year, the Texans are 8-3 and averaged 26 ppg. When he has been out they are 2-3 and average only 19.5 ppg. Houston took week 17 to rest key player. They will look to get a return performance from JJ Watt and hope to have Fuller in to give the offense some depth. Having one less reliable outlet for Watson could be a big piece against a very good Bills pass defense. On the Buffalo side of the ball they did lose their last game of the regular season, but they were looking ahead to this game, resting most of their key players for the week 17 game. I think this is a prime game for Singletary to show what he brings to the Bills offense as the TEX run D is one of the worst in the playoffs. I will also look to Beasly for a lot of check down and quick slant opportunities. Obviously most of these games can go either way. With the thought of defense is what wins in the playoffs, I am leaning with the algo and the Bills. I think this is one of the better games to put into a teaser. If you tease the Bills you get the number through the key 3, 4, 6, and 7 numbers. Plus, they Bills have only been defeated by more than a TD one time this season! Tennessee at New England (-5.5): This is a really fun one to cap. TEN has arguably been one of the best offenses since Tannehill took over. He is 1st in ypa, and passer rating and they have been putting up mad points behind the running game of Henry and the deep balls to AJ Brown who is averaging 20 yards per reception this season. On the flip side of their offensive play is the argument that they really haven't been tested against a good defense. The only decent D that Tannehill has faced since taking over is the road Saints, and that game script was more shootout heavy. The Pats are sporting top defensive numbers and only allow ~20ppg. However, if you dive deeper into those numbers... They went 8-0 in the first half of the season and allowed only 7.5 ppg. Over the last half of the season they are 4-4 and have allowed almost 29ppg!!! Oh boy... So, long story short I spent the last hour or so typing up my TEN/NE write up and I didn't notice my laptop became unplugged in the process. It eventually ran out of juice and crashed before I had updated my draft. I am not going to write it all out again, sorry. I will give a TLDR and you will have the bets I make as a guide for this one. TLDRetype: The weather channel coincidentally named the storm hitting NE tomorrow "Winter Storm Henry" That, the fact that Henry has been a Beast since Tannehill took over, and Draftkings offering an odds boost at 10-1 (from 5.5-1) for anyone to be the first TD scorer, has me looking his way. Edleman has battled some injuries the last month or so and because of that his targets total is at the good price of 5.5. He has been a reliable security blanket for Brady in the playoffs and looks good to return for this game. Sunday Games Minnesota at New Orleans (-7.5): Im sorry but after the Minnesota Miracle and then last years no call vs. the Rams....Does anyone else think this is just a year for the NFL to give the glory back to NO and have the lawsuit against them quietly go away??? Seems like a good reason for the Pats to not give a fuck in last weeks game... AGH, OK brain, I know its 3am and half of our article was written and then erased...but lets reign it in and get back to some logic over far fetched conspiracy theories. . . So I ended up going to sleep there. Probably a good thing, haha. Back to the game... One of the biggest factors in this game should be the losses of Mackenzie Alexander and Mike Hughes who are both ruled out for this game. This season, Alexander was the best performer of their corners and safetys. The others have been playing below league average. The Vikings do play extremely well vs TEs so that should limit the options for Brees which makes looking at his favorite target all the more appealing. His total is 8.5. This year he has hit 8 or more in 11 out of 16 games. In the 8 games since Brees has returned he has hit that total 5 of those 8. Out of the 3 he missed, one game was by 1 reception, and another game was a week 17 blowout vs. CAR when he wasn't needed but still managed 9 targets. As for the Vikings props Cook and Theilen have had the most rest recently and if the game script goes in the Saints favor, this could lead to many throwing opportunities for Cousins. Cook when healthy is a beast in all facets of the run game but is a huge help when it comes to the screen game. Overall, the Saints are wearing their white on white uni's of which they are 5-0 this year. Superstition dictates go with the white. :P ( https://saintswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/03/nfl-playoffs-wild-card-round-saints-vs-vikings-uniform-combination/ ) I will post all my props and picks for this game tomorrow by 2pm. Seattle at Philadelphia (+1.5): Didn't we just see this a few weeks ago? PHL hosting SEA, the line opened PHL as a slight favorite, moved through 0 and pushed up to almost 3 around game time. Then SEA came out and won 17-9? It's almost the same spot looking at it from the outside, but looking at how some of the available players for both teams have changed we see a potentially different story. First off, in that game SEA didnt do too much offensively. They essentially rode the back of Penny's 129 yards and a TD rushing on only 14 carries. Both Penny and Carson, the backs that the SEA offense has flowed through, are out for the season and the replacements are old or unknown. Dont get me wrong, I LOVE beastmode and want nothing more than for him to go all "put the team on his back" NSFW LINK, LANGUAGE WARNING ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gd_Vd43Vxa0 ) But to be honest, hes looking a little pudgy. Who knows, maybe his legs are still machines and his pudge will make him even harder to take down! All in all I think the Eagles D is a better match up for the other back, Homer, who is more reliable as a pass catching back. And to be honest, if SEA wants to win this game, I think they are going to have to unleash Wilson. They are going to have to let him be that special player that makes plays with his legs and his arm. Because of this I will most likely be targeting Lockett, Metcaf and maybe Hollister. On the PHL side all I am hearing is how they won 4 straight to make the playoffs and no one is giving them credit. Well...they won all 4 of those games against NFC east teams. Essentially the worst division this year and two of those games were against the same team. One of which they had to generate a huuuuge comeback in a game they were heavily favored. Also, they only made the playoffs because someone from each division has to represent...So how much love can we really give them for their 4 straight wins. So much of this game for the Eagles is going to depend on the injury reports. I am going to end the article here but wait to update tomorrow with injuries and props chosen for this game. Check back @ 2pm on Sunday. I have 35u of Bonus to use on from Wildcard Reload Promos and Refer-a-friend promos. Most likely won't use all this weekend, they are good for a month. Post Season Bets Singles(0-0)
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot (0-0)
I'm posting now so it's out with enough time for everyone to read and use. Check back in the comments if you want to follow along gametime parlays I make. Thanks for reading and good luck to all!! :D |
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/1imkfytohl741.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=73a56f8541e6e02bff2e3ede1d3da126c3c24693 Sunday Recap Singles: 10-10 (-3.63u) Parlay: 0-0 (0u): None BBDLS: 0-1 (-1.2u) SBBDLS: 0-1 (-0.5u) Teasers: 0-1 (-3u) Sunday Games Tennessee at Houston(+6): Huge first game to open up the card. TEN controls their playoff destiny. Win and they are in. Houston is already in but O'brien says he isn't resting players. I can't imagine he sticks to that plan. There is no reason for him to risk any injury to anyone important. I think Vegas is charging the public on the TEN spread. My algo has this game a PK with TEN -2.5 on a neutral field. With the return of Derrick Henry and Tennessee's top red-zone offense combined with 0 reasons for the Texan's to play a full game, this one is an easy ml parlay candidate. There aren't many props I will be looking at on this final weekend, but Henry is one of them. A week of rest and a win and in scenario for the player that the offense runs through? Sign me up. Extra note: The KC/LAC game is at 1pm. The only chance HOU has to move up is for KC to lose in the 1pm game, then HOU would be majorly incentivised to win this game. May put a BBDLS in that has this combination. Which btw, if you believe the game is rigged to get the Patriots to another superbowl, having KC and HOU swap seeding and make KC and BAL eliminate one of each other seems like the easiest road for New England... Cleveland at Cincinnati(+3): Annnnd here we have the first coin flip of the day. Half a season ago this would have been an easy Browns pick. Now who knows who is going to get up for this game. Im sure everyone in Cleveland would like to end the season on a win. At least it will make a look back a the whole season a little less bitter for them. CIN has clinched a first round pick in the draft. Does this mean that Dalton and Co. are going to take his probably last opportunity as a Bengals starter to showcase their talents for next year's money? Both teams will most likely rely heavily on their running games so I will be fading this one except to maybe take a Bengals ml in a BBDLS Chicago at Minnesota(+3): Another divisional match up here. This game opened at MIN -7 and because they cant move up or down from the 6 seed it looks like they will be resting most of their key players. CHI is only playing for pride and has only one win against a team with a winning record this year, luckily for them it was against this team, at full strength! Not knowing who is going to play for MIN will keep me from looking their way even with the points and HF. Indianapolis at Jacksonville(+4): Just like the CLE/CIN game this one is anyone's game. We have a few of these this week. Teams that are both out of the playoffs with no incentive to win other than pride and future contracts. Ill expect IND to try and replicate last weeks effort on the ground as JAX has a run defense with season stats almost identical to CAR. JAX is hit or miss so in the final (home) game of the season, catching points...Ill have to ride dog or fade. Atlanta at Tampa Bay(-2): Another game with two teams who have zero post season opportunity. Both have been playing above their records over the month of December with ATL coming into this having won their last 3 games. TB has been crap at home this year so far going 2-5. Can they pick up this last game and finish the season .500? My algo is saying no. Currently it is siding with the surge of defense being played by the Falcons in the second half of the season and with less reliable targets for Winston to throw to and a fantastic match up for Julio, Im gonna have to side with the road team here. Washington at Dallas(-11): Boy did the Cowboys really suck last week. They couldn't put up 10 points on an Eagle's secondary that has been getting burned all year. An Eagle's secondary that just gave up like 35 points to the Case Keenum lead Redskins... I mean one would think that Dallas, playing for a miracle to get in the playoffs, would give this game everything and dominate from start to finish. But, why woulnt they just do that last week? Plus, Keenum didn't look that bad (although it was against the Giants secondary). Eleven is a lot of points for a 45 total. That would mean Dallas would have to put up 27 -31 points and keep WAS at 13-17. Doable but not profitable at a -110 bet. Will probably save Dallas for a ML parlay or WAS and the points for a BBDLS. Won't be looking props except Zeke who will be facing a Skins D that gave up almost 200 last week to Saquan alone... Extra trends: The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six against teams with a losing record and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against NFC East teams. Washington is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. New Orleans at Carolina(-13): Well, Will Greer didnt spark the fire in the dying CAR team. CAR has lost their last 7 games and has given up an average 32 ppg over those games. The Rivera defense is over. The Saints on the other hand are operating on the opposite end of the spectrum. Brees had that stumble against ATL but other than that he has looked great as the Saints offense has put 34 or more points in 5 of their last 6. Two TDs is a lot, but if there are a few teams that could do it more often than 53% in this spot, NO is one of them. Philadelphia at NY Giants(+4): A meaningful match up for two teams, but only one of them is playing this game. Philly controls their playoff destiny, as they seemed to have for the last few weeks. A win here with crown them NFC East champs and send them to the playoffs. A loss + a DAL win would end Philly's season and send the Cowboys to the post season. My algo is all over this one for a high scoring game. Both secondary's suck. Greg Ward has quietly become a go to guy for Wentz, posting 15 receptions for 166 yards and 1 touchdown on 23 targets over his last 3 games. Jones seems to favor Tate in terms of targets, but Shepherd has the softest match up going against Jalen Mills. Pittsburgh at Baltimore(+2): Baltimore is in the playoffs and has the guaranteed one seed in the AFC. PIT is seeing their playoff chances slip away. With their loss last week to the Jets, they now need to win this game AND a loss from the Titans. The good news for them is that BAL has their spot locked up and looks to rest a TON of key players. Even so the backup, RG3, isn't the worst guy to step in. He is basically the B team version of Jackson. Well, maybe the C team, haha but even a C team running QB seems more dangerous than whoever PIT has been putting on the field at QB this season. This game's total has been dropping as the week goes on so there is a good chance I just skip it all together as low totals aren't usually good games to target props. Also, there is some serious RLM. Almost 60% of bets are on BAL but the line has gone from BAL -3 to BAL +2... NY Jets at Buffalo(-1): Interesting game here. NY played spoiler last week handing the Steelers and upset and severely hurting their playoff chances. Buffalo is riding high with a guaranteed post season appearance this year, their first in a while. There are already rumors that the Bills won't play starters the whole game, and why would they? They are locked into the 5 spot in the AFC, no reason to risk injury to anyone. With another low projected total, I will probably ride dog or avoid this game all together. Miami at New England (-16.5): Two very important factors in this game. One, its the Dolphins defense. Two, its the Patriots at home. End Analysis. . . Just kidding! That should be all we need to know, but just for the sake of depth, I will add a little more, haha. NE is playing for the number 2 seed in the playoffs and HFA in their first game. MIA with a loss and a NYG win would move up in the draft order. There is also some suprising RLM in this one. Almost 60% of the bets are on MIA +14.5 open, but the line is climbing to now 16.5. This feels like a classic Patriots 31-13 game with 2 or 3 picks, maybe a defensive score, and use of alllll the running backs. I struggle when taking Patriot props as they are so hard to predict who will get the usage on any given day. If you have a site that offers odds on a defensive score, I would take +odds in this context. Green Bay at Detroit(+12): Well this is another playoff bound favorite vs. a team in rebuild looking at 2020. DET did get back Kerryon Johnson at RB. The dual threat of Johnson and Scarborough helped take some load off Blough and DET actually held the lead in the DEN game late. Unfortunately DET defense is still one of the worst and a quick 14 points from DEN took this game away. The first time these two played it was close in GB with DET leading the whole game...however, that game feels like a different season with the different paths these two teams have taken since that game. I expect GB to play starters the whole game and lock up a chance at higher seeding and possibly HFA. LA Chargers at Kansas City(-9): Does KC want to play Baltimore first, or NE first? Essentially if they win this game they get NE and if they lose (and the Texans win) they would get BAL. I would assume they are not happy to play either but alas, the road to the SB leads through both for KC. This year, 11 out of 15 of the LAC games have been won or lost by 7 points or less. Unfortunately for LA, they are 2-9 in those games. This is actually a tough spread to cap. Anything over 7 feels so hard, I mean 11 out of 15... Ill probably be on KC ml in my parlays so I may throw a balance of LA in one. Arizona at LA Rams(-6): Man, I was all over the Rams last Saturday, and a win by them would have kept their playoff chances alive and netted us a huge win on our free roll for that game. Sadly, they couldnt stop two third and longs. Now I sit here wondering if they are even going to get up for this game. AZ has been an underdog most of the year and as a team has put in good effort in most if not all their games. Drake has been an absolute beast since his trade from MIA. Im honestly not sure why this line is what it is. Maybe I am missing something, but it looks like there is a TON of value on AZ. Maybe even ML value. Oakland at Denver(-3.5): So the Raiders still have a chance here. If both TEN and PIT lose and IND and OAK win...OAK is in. It's actually possible, especially if the Chargers an do something random against the Chiefs. For DEN, Lock coming in has been great for them. They are 3-1 since he was named starter and the only game they lost was against the Chiefs. A big key for me in this one is whether or not Josh Jacobs returns. If he does, OAK and the points looks juicy. If he does not, DEN seems primed to end the season on a Mile High Note. :P San Francisco at Seattle(+3.5): They say save the best for last. A fight for their division title, and a chance for either team to take the one seed in the NFC and SF to have HFA throughout the playoffs. The first meeting between these two went down to the wire with SEA taking it on the road. Even with the injuries and new RBs, there has to be value on SEA at home getting more than a field goal. Extra trends: The Seahawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog. San Francisco is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game Singles 133-138-3 (+15.17u)
I have a few more parlays and BBDLS that I put in but it's 11am and I am going to head to the Ocean Casino in AC to put in my last SBBDLS for the season. Will post in the comments when I get back if I find some prop lines before game time. Good luck to all! :D |
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/02yhe20bzpy31.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ac42c1f913f6b74b4f3ac469e75553f3bfa42a6f We have a very spicy divisional match up tonight with playoff chances being greatly impacted with a win or loss for both teams. But first last Sunday's games. Week 10 Recap Singles: 11-1 (+24.74u) Fantastic day utilizing the majority of my remaining free bets. Dalvin cook scored (not the first TD, but a TD) and his prop bet was refunded to us. We had 7 more losses all on free bets but still a great return overall.d Parlay: 1-2 (-1.53u) Nothing of note here. We have been using mostly bonus money to make these parlays and BBDLS plays. This allows us to minimize the risk and maximize the odds with no fear of losing actual bankroll. BBDLS: 0-0 (0u) The bonus money is running low and the season is on the back end. Time to get a big return from either the BBDLS or the SBBDLS! :D SBBDLS: 0-2 (-1u) Same as the BBDLS Teasers: 0-1 (-4.5u) So before the 1pm games had made it through, I posted in the comments how I wasn't able to make it to the Ocean to put this bet in. Lucky for me, as it missed! But, since I had it posted in my article, I am still going to count it in my bankroll as a loss because I had it as one of my plays. I feel like that is only fair because I originally posted it and if I had the time to place the bet, I would have. Onward and upwards! Thursday Night Football Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (-3): Well well well, my only future's predictions as the year has gone on has been: Russel Wilson for MVP, NE and the Saints to make the SB, and Cleveland to have a shitty first half of the season, but to rattle of a ton of wins at the end. I would have thought it would have started with the Denver game and now that it didn't and they didn't beat the Bills by as much as projected, I am beginning to worry. As you can see, tonight's game is EXTREMELY important to both teams. without a win here, Cleveland's playoff chances go from rough, to near impossible. If Pittsburgh loses, it doesn't take them out of the race as much as Cleveland, BUT it is the biggest swing in playoff chance % of any of the AFC teams in Week 11. https://preview.redd.it/4rb2i6801qy31.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=505dabf8420b77f165bcdfc688d1b39295d1fef3 So if you're riding the "NFL is rigged for viewership and ratings" conspiracy...I'd say the Browns will win just to keep that division interesting. Before we jump on that train, let's check out injuries and stats: For the Steelers: "FB Roosevelt Nix (knee), RB Benny Snell (knee) and WR Ryan Switzer (back) won't play. Former Browns CB Joe Haden was added to the injury report Wednesday with an illness and is considered questionable." Nothing of note in terms of players out. But, James Conner will be returning for the Steelers. For the Browns: " The Browns will be without Pro Bowl DE Olivier Vernon for a second consecutive game when they face Pittsburgh on Thursday. Vernon and DB Eric Murray, who has been sidelined since undergoing knee surgery earlier this month, were ruled out for the game. Two others -- TE Ricky Seals-Jones (knee) and T Kendall Lamm (knee) -- were labeled questionable. " Nothing of real note. This is the second game with Hunt returning from his long suspension. Excited to see what he does! The match up I am most excited to see tonight will be the Brown's run game vs. the Steeler's defense. So far in 2019 the Browns are averaging 5.2 ypc and adding Hunt seems like it can only help. Their rushing offense is in the top half of the league in ypc(13th) but in the bottom half in attempts (24th) This means that when they run...they run gewwwd. However, tonight they will be facing a pretty good run defense from the Steelers. They averaging giving up only 3.9ypc (7th) and 105 ypg (16th) and haven't given up 100+ yards rushing to ANYONE this year. Overall, Cleveland is 2-6-1 ATS this year, but they are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight division games. My algo has this as 24-22 Cleveland. However, it isn't accounting for any changes Kareem Hunt is going to add. Personally I think he will boost the dynamics of the receiving running back game, freeing up the WRs to get more open looks. This should have the overall effect of stretching the field and opening up the offense. There are two more things I would like to give reference to. The first is the spread. This game opened at -2.5 and has moved to -3. However, most everywhere I look has the larger percentage of spread bets on the PIT points. This should cause the line to move down...if anything, it should keep it from crossing the important number 3. However, because the line isn't budging, it makes me think the larger wagers and sharp money is on the CLE side. The second is more of a fun conspiracy theory type wager, but I think its fun so here goes: At the same time as the start of tonight's game, OBJ and Nike are releasing a new OBJ "what if" cleat. The "conspiracy" is that there is no way a multi-billion dollar company like Nike would time the release of the shoes at the same time as a prime time game of the player advertising those shoes if he wasn't going to have a big game. So, I will be looking at OBJ props tonight with the thought process of he is going to have a breakout game to match his cleats. So it's clear that my algo and myself like the Browns tonight. However, if you are feeling the Steelers, here is an interesting tweet that could make you feel better about your bets: " According to ESPN's Trey Wingo, the last six Browns coaches have all been fired after a Steelers game: History says tonight may be problematic for Freddie Kitchens. Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh tonight. The last 6 Browns coaches have all been fired after a Steelers game: Hue Jackson Mike Pettine Rob Chudzinski Pat Shurmur Eric Mangini Romeo Crennel — trey wingo (@wingoz) November 14, 2019 "Do the Steelers continue their win streak and playoff bid, ending the time of Freddie Kitchens? Or does Cleveland's offense wake up and put on a show, reminding everyone of the offensive weapons this team possesses. Should be an interesting game. Lets see what happens! Note: We have approx 17u in Bonus money from Refer-A-Friend Bonus. Don't think I will be using any tonight. Will most likely save for the bigger plays on Sunday parlays. Singles 71-70-2 (+26.8u)
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Price-- | Item------------------ | Description - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - |
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$100 | Dayton Sub-800 | One of the cheapest subs I can still recommend. Has enough for any desk setup and even a small living room. |
$135 | Dayton Sub-1000 | This is the most popular sub for noobs. This is also as cheap as I would ever go on a 10"and is more than enough to fill in the lows in a budget 5.1 |
$170 | Earthquake FF6.5 | Using the smallest driver I have ever seen in a standalone sub this little 6.5" promises many things. Review Incoming. |
$180 | ELAC S10 | You don't really ever need a "Matching" sub but should you need a small, powerful little sub this elac baby will work just fine. Even looks good. |
$250 | Yamaha SW210 | AKA the flat sub. These designs are around for people who have something to hide.. namely their subwoofer. Keep in mind this has no speaker wire passthroughs. |
$270 | Klipsch R-10SW | Keeping the size down and being able to handle bigger rooms, lower frequencies means spending on more power and more engineering. Thus This. |
$330 | Jamo Sub 800 | This is a unique Micro Cube sub. Designed to be as small as possible and still deliver all the boom boom you could want. I want one! |
$400 | Sunfire SDS8 | Ever hear of sunfire? Well if your neighbor 3 houses down gets one you will hear of it.. You will hear of it all day. That is all. |
$500 | SVS SB-1000 | YES, this is a small sub. It is the only 12" hiding in this category and costs the SVS amount but nobody suspects the 13" cube.. Nobody. |
Price-- | Item------------------ | Description - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - |
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$215 | BIC America F12 | Review THIS is the sub most people end up with. The Looks, The reviews the Wubba Dubba Dub dub. 12" with nearly 500 peak watts. Sells itself. |
$150 | Dayton Sub-1200 | Popularity and cost put this on the list as one of the best selling subs of all time. Works for almost any room and looks... well, like a sub. |
$125 | Monoprice 12" | A decent entry level sub with a unique shape and good reviews. When you can't spend a fortune you can always count on monoprice for deals. King Cheap 12" |
$200 | Dayton Sub-1500 | The cheapest 15" subwoofer in the world. It can reach down but has moderately low power which makes it suitable for "basic" crazy home theaters. |
$250 | BIC Acoustech PL-200 | The BIC F12's more grown up brother. Better build. Higher peak output. This SOB is a definate upgrade to the worlds most popular sub. |
$345 | Klipsch R-12SW | These bigger 12" klipsch stand quite securely as a high end box of death and murder. Plus look how sexy it is. |
$700 | ELAC S12EQ | The most technologically advanced sub on this list. Full adjust-ability via your smart phone. Has true potential to be the prototype sub for years to come. |
$800 | SVS PB2000 | Review Not small for a 12", Not cheap nor is it very pretty. But it attacks with more gusto then any of the budget subs. Beware the bass. |
$910 | Rythmik FVX15 | Review I own this sub. It uses Servo's instead of just raw power which means it is TIGHT, Fast, and controlled. Few need more than this. |
$1000 | PSA S1500 | Review American Made and HUGE. These subwoofers brute force their way into your heart and spine and whatever internal organs you have. |
$2000 | SVS PB13 Ultra | Review The end game sub for most of the world. Most well known and by far the largest I have ever used/seen/felt. Be serious if you get this. It is serious. |
Andrade explained the whole thing during an interview with WILD 94.1-- saying the gambling website Bovada offered +750 odds ($100 bet pays $750) so he decided to take matters into his own hands. Getty The most popular Super Bowl prop bet is typically the length of the national anthem. You can wager on how long it will take Demi Lovato to finish the "Star-Spangled Banner" and not feel like a A prop bet – or proposition bet – is a wager that doesn’t necessarily correlate with the outcome of the game. Instead of betting on wins and losses, total score or point spread , you would bet on things like how many yards a player will rush for or how many touchdown passes a quarterback will throw. Printable Super Bowl 2021 prop bet scorecard Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs vs. Tom Brady and the Bucs is literally a matchup for the ages. Illustration By Alejandro Parrilla Super Bowl LIV prop bets have been released. Find out what the lines are for all the major props plus what the sharps in Vegas are playing. Online sportsbooks like MyBookie have shifted the line and reduced the max bet to just $100 for the famous Super Bowl prop bet. TAMPA, Fla. – Those who were waiting until the last minute to bet on the length of the National Anthem at Super Bowl 55 may be out of luck as many online sportsbooks have pulled the odds down . At DraftKings, there is a bet asking if any scoring drive will last shorter than the national anthem. Yes pays out at -335 (bet $335 to win $100), while No carries +250 odds (bet $100 to win $250). SportsLine Prop Guide See which big game props you need to bet, which players sail over their yardage and touchdown totals, and get trends you need to know, all from a team of football insiders. Exotic Super Bowl prop bet odds are released as soon as an AFC champion and an NFC champion have been determined. The majority of NFL betting sites online will release exotic Super Bowl prop bets for you to wager on, such as will an athlete propose to his partner on the field following the big game. PROP BET: Shortest Touchdown: OVER/UNDER 1.5 Yards My favorite prop bet for Super Bowl LV is the total yards of the shortest touchdown. The total is set at 1.5 yards with UNDER (-177) as the
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Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. Sportsbook Review is a community of online bettors that strive for a win every single day. How do we help our community? We gather the industry influencers and put them at everyone's reach via our ... Brock Page Productions provides sports content, opinions, and information on YouTube. We offer free sports pick videos on this platform, along with paid premium sports picks on my website, http ... Multistreaming with https://restream.io/ In today's episode of a Fantasy Football Podcast by the FF Faceoff, Anthony Cervino (@therealnflguru), Mike Hauff (@... Matt Perrault is back with 4 more Super Bowl Props to bet, 2 college basketball picks and 1 NHL game as well. It's all on the Saturday morning edition of the... Direct from the WagerTalk TV Studios in Las Vegas, our panel of professional sports bettors give their early Super Bowl 2020 predictions, plus tips and strat... Super Bowl 51 Broadcaster Joe Buck on SB51 Prop Bets, Calling SB Game & More - 2/1/17 - Duration: 13:46. The Rich Eisen Show 22,673 views Early Super Bowl 54 predictions, picks, and updated odds direct from the WagerTalk TV Studios in Vegas with Marco D'Angelo, Teddy Covers and Drew Martin. The... Super Bowl 54 is set... 49ers. Chiefs. For all the #NFL100 marbles!I take a deep dive into e.v.e.r.y.t.h.i.n.g. that I could think of regarding the BIG GAME.... Super Bowl 54 updated odds, predictions, and picks direct from the WagerTalk TV Studios in Las Vegas with Minty, Bryan Leonard, and Tony Finn. The 2020 Super Bowl is on February 2, 2020, at 6:30 p ...
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