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Let’s forget the rockets and gay bears for a minute and have a discussion about fair value of the company here. I see 4 potential scenarios: 1. Cohen pulls off a hostile takeover, infinity squeeze, rocket rocket, pew pew, how high does it go? 2. Cohen’s vision comes to fruition (whether he is involved or not) shorts cover, price stabilizes, balance is restored. 3. The company does enough to stay alive, uses the console cycle profits to pivot in the direction of online gaming, they lean out, but it happens at slow boomer speed. 4. Cohen executes an epic rug pull and takes his profits and moves on to the next adventure. Regardless of how likely you may think any of these scenarios are a fair value has to be assessed. Now I don’t really give a shit about scenario 1 or 4. What I care about is what a fair value of the company is in scenario 2 and 3 two years from now.. Given the balance sheet, increased gaming revenue expected in the coming years, and GameStop’s ability (or inability) to address the market what say you? To get things started: Scenario 2 - 4 Billion market cap Scenario 3 - 1.5 billion market cap TLDR: rockets and shit...maybe
(GME DD) One DD to rule them. One DD to find them. One DD to to bring them all and in the darkness bind them.
Ok retards listen up. Been seeing lots of cucks writing small DD pieces of bullish or bearish shit. You cucks need to read this cos this is the whole fucking thing.
this is also basically my magnum fucking opus so upvote retards. Dont give me awards, legit go buy a powerup membership for a year. Cant tell you to buy shares because we gonna get closed down by SEC somehow. im also not some fininacial advisor or whatever just read this and make your own conclusions degenerates. Im not fucking liable lmao but i am balls deep 125 shares @ 19 average now, its literally all I have on this earth. TLDR: GME DD sumarized, Margin wont affect longs the same way as shorts right now. Dont buy shares on margin though and get ready to supply collateral regardless. Short interest is up and some smart retards are on our side. Read the post to raise your IQ from 8 to 9 though. 🐻 🌈s mega fuk and even posting high level bear shit to scare us. Compulsory 7 rockets so you autists dont start having a seizure or something: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Basically been seeing posts about "blah blah margin this, short interest this, WS to clever blah". Going to split this post into distinct sections but im no english degree cuck so dont expect any bear bloomberg level shit or something
1. GME is a fucking steal regardless of squeeze. Buy now or be left on a dying planet while we head to alpha fucking centauri.
So basically everyone here knows about Ryan cohen and his horsemen of the apocalypse coming to steal melvins lunch money. This man bought apple stock in 2017. Hes fucking rich. Hes also an eccommerce wizard, taking CHEWY from a measly 100k co-founded company to a $4 Billion company in 2017 at which point he sold it to petsmart or something. Its now valued at $40 Billion, granted anything eccommerce now gets money thrown at it like a stripper in a high flying strip club or some shit idk im a virgin so dont listen to me, so it may well be a bubble. Regardless the thing grows its revenue like bacteria doing binary fission on agar jelly 🚀🚀🚀🚀. THEY SELL FUCKING PET FOOD. the market for that is like what? $1?. Gaming is going to the moon and is basically recession proof because of how cheap game is compared to other things for how much you get out of it. Any bears saying that Gamestop cant compete with digital or with amazon. Ryan cohen already slapped amazons head in with a no name brand. Hell fucking do it again. About digital everyone here already knows, microsoft deal, Ryan cohen also mentioned the possibility of having "Digital game exchanging" or something, image below. Online trade ins. It says online.🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 He also mentions streaming, digital content etc and aside from all the digital stuff wants GME to move to a community centric structure where big stores operate with VR centres, Internet cafe, table games like Dungeons and dragons and 40k (rapidly growing somehow will boom post covid) and as we now might know due to this post: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kypuyb/gme_dd_buildapc_kiosks_coming/ BUILD YOUR OWN PC KIOSKS. This is the literal smell of money. Go to your Gamestop to build your PC with your kid? Gamestop is already the goto place wher your parents go to get you your latest digital fix so now they can go build PC's and it cant go tits up? Now for some pussy boomer talk (aka fundametals or something). The expected Q3 EPS was -0.84$ or something close to that. The actual loss was -0.53$ but boomzoids only talked about the revenue drop. No shit sherlock its closing all its dead weight stores. In the holiday report I will talk about a bit more below, 11% of stores were closed and revenue dropped only 3%. Comparitive store sales increased nearly 5%. They cant get enough consoles to sell so expect the momentum to carry on for the whole year I expect. Eccommerce is up 300% over holidays. In Q3 they reported 800% to date. In 2020 Gamestops eccomerce went up 24x. YES YOU READ THAT RIGHT. Online sales now account for ~33% of Gamestops sales now. This is literally gold dust for ryan cohen. We are still trading at 0.38 P/S at this price. The average P/S for the SP500 is 2.753. Massive upside on these two numbers alone. Burry got in this for the MOASS and the intrinsic value. At the time intrinsic value was like $22 and this will pump up as RC takes it to new heights. GME in Q3 somehow halved the expected loss. Big Bad Boomer sherman somehow didnt fuck it up that bad by saying "omnichannel" at the speed of light. Yes the revenue dropped 30% but thats covid for you. As the PC kiosk post above shows GME now sells small items basically so fast they have to have fake stock lmao. The new console cycle always spikes the share price sky high too, as youll see in a crayon drawing later. The potential revenue that this console cycle brings in could be huge. Biggest ever is potentially a true statement and Gamestop sells every fucker they get. Combine the fact that they share game pass ( a massive hit) revenue from the xboxes they sell, something no other retailer has, revenue could be sky high. Now I know you autists are starting to develop short term dyslexia or something but keep reading. This could be the most important piece of shit you read in your life. How do you think I feel? My brains overheating just trying to write coherent sentences. Holdiay report was a bear trap imo, saw people saying the decrease in revenue was bearish blah blah blah. Lies. Comparitve store sales rose 5% and thats with some towns having like 4 gamestops. When the leases dont get renewed and these stores get liquidated (Also in Ryan cohens letter) they can just get this influx of cash and pay down debt and invest in logistics and marketing and new growth. Gamestop realistically needs like 1/2 the stores they have now and just need to improve efficiency. https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/349890 this article the messiah himself wrote. In it he states:
At Chewy, we had maniacal discipline when it came to how we spent money. The company-wide culture of frugality came from his example. Free cash flow was our unwavering governor of growth. We grew Chewy from $200 million in sales in 2013 to $3.5 billion in 2018 while spending only $130 million in capital, all of which went into opening distribution centers across the country and acquiring new customers.
Maniacal. Thats all I need to say. The guy is going to get to mars before papa musk and he wont even break a sweat. When FCF starts to catch up to WS expectations every analyst who donwgraded them is gonna get ditched and upgrades will start to happen. So in the heading i said its a steal. That implies some future higher price target right? Well here is my guess for a conservative price target based on the information above and also some more I probably forgot cos im a retard. The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk)
The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk)
This alone means if for not inflation adjusted terms we reached 9.8Bn or whatever the crayon chart says we should reach: 9.8/2.48 = ~3.95 3.95 * $35.5 = ~$140. The share price now to reach old mkt cap is $140 fucking dollars. Thats a 4 bagger from now. It gets better. from statista :
Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in recent years, a 2.24 percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection.
If we take 2.24% inflation, the this share price target in todays money means we should reach $182 because of $140 * 1.0224^12, = $182 in adjusted. Thats more than a 5 bagger. basically we could see $10 GME price from short manipulation and buying more is basically a lottery ticket! I really dont understand the bear thesis. The only bear thesis ( short term this one) was that margin would affect longs more but I looked at it on ortex and its basically bullshit. Buy shares with cash though dont use margin. Own your piece of GME dont borrow it. Bears just spout "DigITaL" or "BlOCKbuSTER" so much Ryan tweeted a shit emoji at them. All the bears think theyre clever. What the fuck makes those cucks special? How are they different now than the ones from $2, or $4, or $10. Bears are betting against: Ryan fucking cohen, buisness legend CHEWY from 100k investment, now 40 billion Michael burry, Investing legend, predicted the housing crisis and is in GME since april u/DeepFuckingValue , the new WSB god chad, now basically a whale Reggie Fils-Aimé, gaming and buisness legend, former COO of nintendo Senvest, a mega fund thats actively managed Norweigan sovereign wealth fund Fidelity, Vanguard and blackrock own this shit and are never selling they literally dont give a shit All of WSB has now formed a shield wall against the bears Microsoft gave GME highly discounted azure deals and free office use for all employees and a revenue sharing agreement. Bears are stupid if they think MSFT didnt vet GME. Some valid bear thesis left now (the only ones left) -- Ryan Cohen dies.
2. Now some analysis on the short squeeze and some technical data on puts and calls and ortex data.
Ok everyone on here and their cat, dog, bedbugs and wifes boyfriend knows about the squeeze. Jimmy chill aka cramer even talking about it. Gamestop is literally the most shorted stock of all time and space. The squeeze makes every autist salivate because its basically free money while cucking big money out of like what 1% of their fund. Although I know all you cucks hate shares, and hate holding, if the squeeze doesnt happen selling is probably the most retarded thing anyone could do. Its literally buy high sell low and you fucking disgust me. STONK ONLY GOES UP. This squeeze is so monumental that its been sucking sharks in like fresh blood. Most of the funds where shorting this from 30-15 dollars before this year so they didnt really care. It all changed with 2 people. u/DeepFuckingValue and Dr. Michael Burry. These guys are as OG as it gets with GME. I think u/DeepFuckingValue may have even sniffed this trade out before the legend himself. Since then funds will have churned this through their rules and started jumping on this train. Ive been in since $13 with 125 shares. If I had more money Id be buying but im just some stupid student ok. Im merely a medium for this money made information. The stats for this stock now short wise are, from ortex: Concrete short interest as of 31 December 2020: 71 Million. Estimated short interest, January 11th data: (This isnt predicted, this is from data in flow, has margin of error) : 77 Million Short shares on loan 7 days ago: 50 Million Short shares on loan now (This breaks the bearish margin calls affect longs more thesis): 54.2 Million % of known float short: 147% as of 31 December 2020 % of know free float on loaned shorts: 108% as of January 11th. Some guy on here took into account extra buying on wednesday, Institutions, Burry, RC's extra 7% and WSB ownership (something so stupendously retarded no serious firm will do it) that float on short could be in the 100s of %. Total short float now I would say could be 200-400% if the numbers are correct. This pisses on all other short squeezes. Some countries ban shorting above 100% cos of how autistic it is. The recent hike in interactive brokers available shares is probably a mix of sell off on friday (remember some guys are now buying lambos with GME money. If they held they could buy 10), calls exercising and puts being covered and brokers ditching the shares. Nakedshort even reported 5 million naked GME shorts on friday. This is bullish as fuck because the best the shorts could do on a red market day was -10%. Gamestop is still on the SECs threshold list for 27 days now. This shows naked short selling and downwards pressure hasnt capitulated Need rockets 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀: Ok so now if WSB owns an estimated 6-8% of the stock and we all know to move over to cash accounts now to avoid margin calls, we should be minimizing longs getting margin called. Every bear on stockwits is a clueless cuck who spouts "blockbuster" and these guys dont even know what margin even is so my bet is the colossal 54 Million shares short on loan are gonna be affected by the margin calls more. Why? Because every long on margin is in the green, and now a true zealot/extremist/autist for ryan cohen so will supply their account with collateral to avoid margin call. Shorts are in the massive red zone. How do I know you ask? Ortex data from Jan 4th 2021: This is the data from ortex for short interest for Gamestop for Jan 4th So this shows for jan 4th the estimated short interest is 66.98 Million shares. From the exchange reported 71 Million on december 31st this makes a lot of sense because the share price fell from ~21 to ~17 so shorts took profits. The shares on loan arent for longs too. This is all purely short data, and 47M shorted at $17 this shows. These shorts are in a circle of hell we cant comprehend and makes satan scared. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Now for the data for this week: Ortex short data for Jan 14th for Gamestop SHARES ON LOAN HAVE GONE UP. BUT 87% OF LOANED SHORTS WHERE SHORTING AT SUB $20. Cost to borrow is also up, estimated short interest is up to a cataclysmic amount. Longs on margin need to supply collateral, but we are in the massive green zone, shorts are underwater. Margin calls will ravage the shorts and sting the longs. We also have the uptick rule in place until the end of the day, so shorts can only short on the way up. Im not saying itll happen but this shit is skewed in our favour big time. we need to 💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Seen a lot of talk about Gamma hedging and delta. You realize that the fucking bankers and brokers dont understand gamma hedging right? That shits up their with the black-scholes equation and feynman-kac solution. Forget about it. The retards claiming to understand it are either payed by hedge funds or lose money. The guy who took out outs thinking options exercising and gamma hedging would lead to a collossal sell off on friday lost money on his puts because no one except some quants in a goldman sachs server room know this shit. The idea is simple about neutral delta on options that people take out, but the simple system interacts with every other thing in the stock market, and wow who couldve guessed it, like nearly any other element of the stock market predicting something by the day is nigh impossible. That guy talking about Gamma , Delta and margin calls is on weeklies. Hes no more autistic and equally retarded as all of us. Hes a chill guy though so dont berate a fellow brother. Now weve established the likelihood of longs getting margin called is far smaller than shorts, on to the options distributions Two images now: Top one is before the end of the 15th, the other one is after market close: This shows the suspected melvin puts (51000 contracts, 5 Million shares, rolled up from july, strike price $24) and lots of big ITM calls. 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 This shows the big put contract didnt get rolled over and the big ITM calls got exercised on friday. Large puts are underwater big timem while calls are in the big tendy zone. These two graphs, show before market close and after. As we can see the massiver 51000 put contracts didnt get rolled over and the chances that those were melvins july puts rolled up is very high. They expired worthless. Lots of calls are printing big time while huge amounts of puts are worthless and bleeding money. Something else we can extrapolate from the charts is that massive options trades are not present on the scale we saw before (tens of thousands). 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 We are seeing a discrepancy in the number of puts/calls opening up at the higher prices with calls gaining fast. This could show that some funds are now becoming optimistic on the long or short term prospects of gamestop. There are also more puts than options and if we assume this for shorts vs longs on margin (without even taking into account that all shorts are borrowed shares and pay interest further bleeding cash) then shorts are likely on more margin than longs. Regardless fellow autists my main point is two show that the bears are underwater and the bulls are flying high with regards to options. Now lets compare this possible squeeze with others. Bear in mind this is the most shorted stock of all time, but differences in free float change the share price differently. Kodak went from $2.16 to $33.2 Volkswagen went from ~200 euro to nearly 1000. Overstock went from ~$21 to $123 Blue apron went from $2.31 to $18 Ive been seeing some estimated that 1 million shares is roughly a dollars move in share price. This maths is about to be pretty autistic so bear with me degnerates. $1 now is 2.81% of the share price. Everything in the markets is exponential and based on percentages. So if we assume a full squeeze of ortexs estimated short interest (This assumes no sell off and no new shorts, new shorts can be positive or negative depedning on when in the squeeze they happen) $35.5 * 1.0281^77 = $299. GME to moon. 🌑 . This shit can happen. Hold on. GME has squeezed and been manipulated before and it always happens around the console cycles. Shorts never win and they wont win now. This post right here I found months ago and got me in the squeeze from the honourable and valiant u/Uberkikz aka Rod Alzman Basically the crayon chart shows green (outstanding shares) orange ( short shares) purple (Market cap) and cyan (Share price). In 2006-2008 the share price rose in tandem with short interest ( Like now ) Until console releases when you can see an abrupt squeeze happend mooning the share price. This happend to a degree in 2013 with the xbox one but worse conditions for the company and a worse console launch lead to slow short covering but the share price still mooned. Now we get to the best part. History is repeating itself for the third time and the shares sold short are literally higher than the outstanding shares, which have been decreasing since 2010. Short shares are also at the highest point ever and GME hasnt had a brighter future, well ever. Ps5 and Xbox Series X. are the two most hyped consoles since the Ps2. This is setting up the foundations for massive price movements weve never seen before. This shit has literally never happend, ever. Uncharted waters and we are the captain. For the insurmountably retarded autists who think that the squeeze has happend look upon this and despair: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kwpf6k/gme_gang_there_hasnt_been_a_short_squeeze_yet/ IHOR IS A MEGA WIZARD Ihor I quote:
A long-buying tsunami ... is the primary factor for the price move
Ihor Dusaniwsky is managing director of predictive analytics at S3 a firm similar to ortex. He told bloomberg that the squeeze hasnt happend yet and that this was long buying. If someone knows this shit its him. He was talking about the tesla squeeze in january 2020. He has access to resources we can only imagine. Barrons cut his comment that the squeeze hasnt happend yet out it was that fucking bullish. All the media ramming down "Short squeeze has happend" down peoples throats because bears are fucking scared. The bots on stocktwits spamming bearish sentiment should show how rattled they are. Edit: You fucking degens just enlightened me that cramer pump is real, funds are ruminating over the long weekend, and stmmy bills pumps stonks and that stimmy bill buys many an xbox. See you at andromeda! Also more rockets. Edit**: Some autists thought lottery ticket was misleading so instead, gauranteed lottery numbers!** Edit 3: RYAN FUCKING COHEN TWEETED THE HOMIE JUST TWEETED. PEANUT EMOJI. HES 1) NUTTING 2) SAYING 35 IS PEANUTS 3) GIF SAYS THERES A CHANCE, SHORT SQUEEZE IMMENINT HOMIES Edit 4: Amazing post here showing that unlucky prize guy was wrong like I said. Ihor also talked about the hypothecation agreement. Edit 5: This is true and I forgot to add
from u/luncheonmeat79 via /wallstreetbets sent 2 minutes ago There’s also the chance of a ratings upgrade. Moody’s and S&P have GME at B3 and B-, which is rated “highly speculative”. Ratings are reviewed every quarter, and a review might be due this month (i.e. this coming week or next). Good chance that the agencies might upgrade GME to a B2/B, or even better to the next higher band (Ba/BB).
Edit 6: We are scraping 42 in frankfurt. Granted its low volumes but pre market should open at these prices I think? Conclusion: Buy shares with cash not margin. Hold shares forever unless RC dies (Shame hes a cybernetic demigod), Melvin bad, Shorts fuk, 🐻 🌈 posting bearish shit are doing weeklies for the second time after they expired red on friday, GME to $200 without squeeze, Ryan cohen a god, GME is still a value play, Good luck have fun.
Is GME currently in the short-squeeze (up 20% today so far)?
Does anyone know a reason for GME up so much, or is this the beginning of the short-squeeze? In a short-squeeze, how high do stocks typically climb? I'm aware that this will depend on how many people have shorted the stock, I'm more interested in how fast it will accelerate and what to look for and general trends from past short-squeezes
Are your Boomer parents as baffled by your $GME gains as mine are? Feel free to use my G-rated, very basic explanation of what the fuck is going on!
So to start, you need to know what "shorting" a stock is. When someone thinks a stock is going to go down or a company will go bankrupt, they can borrow shares from their broker to open a "short" position. They then sell the shares immediately at the current market price. They have a specified amount of time to return the borrowed shares to the brokerage. If the stock does go down, the investor buys that number of shares at the now lower current market price, and then returns them to the broker. He/she keeps the difference. If the stock goes up, they have to "cover" their position. They can "buy-to-close" whenever they want, but many of them will wait for a very long time because they are large firms who have a lot of money and leeway with their brokerage. However, if a stock keeps going up and up, the brokerages can call the investor and demand the shares back to hedge their losses. This forced buying drives the price up even more, which then causes other brokerages to make the same phone call to their clients, and so on and so forth. This is called a "short squeeze". --- GameStop is a declining brick-and-mortar video game retailer. Their management has not adapted to the digital world where many video games are downloaded instead of on discs. They have been making some moves in the right direction, such as closing underperforming stores and paying down some debt, but they need to reinvent themselves to succeed. Many large investors/firms have seen this coming and took out short positions a few years ago. The stock kept going down so the brokerages and banks hadn't called yet. GME is the most-heavily shorted stock on the market. More shares are shorted than are in circulation. It's called "naked short selling", it's complicated, and some of it is probably illegal but the SEC looks away. Ryan Cohen founded Chewy.com when he was 25 and sold it six or so years later for $3.5 billion. Last August, he purchased 9% of GME's shares. When it was disclosed in the SEC filings, the stock went up 22% in a day (which is a LOT in normal circumstances). The thought being that he was going to attempt to take over the company. There was a lot of speculation online. In late November he wrote a strongly-worded letter to the Board of Directors. Shortly before Christmas, he disclosed that he had bought more shares and now owns 12.9% of the company. He bought the new shares at $16ish, after buying the first batch around $4. When someone owns 10% or more of a company, there are heavy limitations on how much they can sell at one time, in a given period, and they have to disclose everything. This signaled that he wasn't in it for a quick buck and he probably really was going to try to take over and modernize the entire company. Gamestop has something like 55 million members in their club/newsletter thing, and that data can be used to make a lot of money through targeted advertising and such. There have also been confirmed rumors that the company will be making a serious run at the fast-growing PC gaming market (many serious gamers build their own computers). Video game competitions are also very popular and can be capitalized on. The stock continued to slowly climb, with some sell-offs and such along the way. It was not for the faint of heart. Fast-forward to January 10th, when it was announced that Cohen and two of his board members from Chewy were officially appointed to the GameStop Board. It was really looking like the theories from last fall were correct. The news sent the stock soaring and the investors who had short positions were in big trouble. Some of them started covering their debt, but many didn't and still haven't. The ones that did have incurred losses in the collective billions, and there are many more billions still out there that will be lost by short investors. For the past two weeks, the pro-GameStop investors have shown great interest in the potential turnaround story of a store that plays a big role in their childhood memories. With the presence of Cohen and his buddies from Chewy, an e-commerce giant, small investors can see that GameStop is now undervalued to those who believe in the new Board members. The stock has been incredibly volatile as the large investment firms try to drive the price down. One way they can do this by opening massive new short positions (AKA selling large chunks of shares all at once) as other shorts return their borrowed shares to the pool. This can be seen many times along the daily charts of GME, in nearly vertical declines. Knowing the potential of both Cohen and the short squeeze, small investors have been buying up all the dips. If the shares are being held, and not sold, they are unavailable to be returned to brokerages. This drives the price up even MORE as the short investors scramble to buy whatever shares are available to fill their debt before the price continues to rise. Eventually someone is left holding the shares purchased at the highest possible price, but in this once-in-a-lifetime case, it probably won't be someone with a net worth under $100 million. Position: Go fuck yourself, shorts
Weekend GME Thread + Homework for all: Let's stop using brokerages that halted trading
Hello all, Let's use this thread to discuss the GameStop situation this weekend, please don't open new threads about it unless it is a unique perspective or brings very valuable information. Do note, posts and comments are still restricted to users with a higher Karma and account age.
Important information
First, let's get some things out of the way:
The short squeeze has not squoze yet, short interest estimates are still extremely high, I won't post the sources and encourage you to search for it yourself.
The gamma squeeze has not happened, it may happen Monday, it may happen gradually, it may not happen (if their positions have already been covered), it isn't necessary for anything to happen, however.
The establishment is still lying about many things for the purpose of market manipulation (Jim Cramer, CNBC, etc.). These people are SOLD. Read Canadian news channels regarding the situation, they are much less biased!
Google and Apple and removing negative reviews from bad brokers from their app stores, put a calendar reminder in 2-6 weeks to add your review at that time, instead of now.
Let's make a list of the Brokers that restricted the purchasing of specific tickers
The worst thing that happened this week were the restrictions that our brokers put on buying specific tickers. This, obviously, affected the stock market, tanked those tickers, and significantly reduced our trust in the institutions at hand. Now, I'm aware the reasons for this are complicated, we know that for many of them, they were forced to restrict these tickers by their Clearing Houses (Apex being the main one), we don't exactly know why, or whether that is legal or not, however. One thing for certain, the communication by the brokers and clearing houses was very, very, very bad. This, in turns, significantly harmed the public's trust in them, as well as the institutions in charge of regulating this. Here is my list, please comment below and let me know which ones I've missed:
Horrible Brokers - Restricted purchasing of certain tickets and lied/gloated about it
TD Ameritrade/Canada - Proof - Proof2 - (Margin requirements increased, Covered call and short put orders may only be placed with a broker and support times are > 2h, other trades restricted) - Neutral because they didn't restrict the purchase of stocks with cash.
The first step is to know why brokers restricted the trading. The second step is to investigate what happened with the clearing houses. Currently, the following clearing houses seem to have had the most issues:
Apex Clearing
Barclays
IKBR
We don't know if these firms acted maliciously (protecting themselves before protecting the free market), or because they literally had no choice. If the former, they need to be punished. If the later, then laws need to change. EITHER WAY, something needs to change, this post is merely here to put attention on the problem, I don't claim to have the solution. Additionally, there needs to be open communication about this issue, currently, they are not saying anything on social media regarding this. Once they do, I'll update this post with it. Note: / THICC_DICC_PRICC tried to explain this in some detail here. I cannot attest to the accuracy/validity of his explanation, feel free to discuss that on his post. We might keep this information on the sidebar...forever. Please help me build this list to completion. If you are using a broker in the bad list, even if you are not invested in the tickers that have been restricted, please consider moving to a better broker. Thank you all for your patience, we are sorry new members are not able to comment yet, we promise you will be allowed to once this is over!
Just want to let people know that that 100m dollars (NOT SHARES) in dilution is just an option. Management put it out there either to make some $ when this short squeeze and/or to fend off Cohen for a bit. If you listen on the conference call. Here’s the link but I'll just cut to the chase. William Reuter -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst OK. And then, in terms of the new shelf, you know, I saw that you mentioned general corporate purposes. Would you consider issuing stocks to repay debt under that program? George Sherman -- Chief Executive Officer No, that's absolutely not the intent. The intent here is to simply optimize flexibility and optionality. Period. There is a lot of unknowns going on in the marketplace with respect to this pandemic, ongoing flex of cases across the world, the impacts on our own businesses. And we're not immune to that, right? And, in that regard, look, we're going to continue to execute our strategies that have bolstered and strengthen our balance sheet. And you see all the work that we've done, including, if we go back to even the long-term debt levels in early 2019 until today, it's -- you know, as of this coming Friday will have reduced our long-term debt over $530 million, by March of '21, they'll be over $600 million. In that same timeframe, that same roughly 24-month timeframe, plus or minus, we also returned over $200 million to shareholders. So, I think -- look, the goal is to continue to focus on running the business and optimizing we run the business, but also be very pragmatic and make sure that we have capital flexibility with no intention to do anything other than maintain our flexibility. Hopefully that helps you. Jim Bell -- Chief Financial Officer And as far as [Inaudible] is concerned, we don't need it. We don't need it. Bottom line. What now? Since this earnings the only thing that has changed is that management is confirmed to be survival mode to save their jobs because Cohen wants to kick them out. Check Jeff’s DD on GME and ask yourself how much of that has changed? Nothing. Everyone knew that earnings was going to be shit since this quarter marks the END of the console cycle. For all the doomsayers and fucken 1 ply toilet paper hands, you probably sold and took the loss after you got your ass handed to you by yours truly Melvin Capital. Here you can see how the # of shares available dropped from 45k to 1k and fees basically skyrocketed. Short the shit out of the stock and hit all those stop losses and paint a terrible earnings picture for GME. This isn’t the first time, last earnings they did the same shit (September 9,2020) stock went from 7.35$ to 6.23$ only to rocket up to 9$ in a week. They do this shit every earnings. GameStop is like PLTR, manipulated to hell by hedge funds except for GameStop they ran out of ammo (SI over 100% and they are underwater) and they’re firing blanks at you. Are you going to let them walk all over you or fuck them in the ass. Look only at the charts (credits to Uberkikz11/Rod Alzmann) to see historically what happens during a new console cycle. This time is no fucken different. If you need any reassurance just go to see who you are betting against, but unlike the big short movie. This time you can fucken dance. Position 100% yolo shares 10k in shares. 💎 ✋ I've been buying the dip. Early response for all the 🌈🐻 Q - No one goes to GameStop when you go to order online? A - Then why isn't Bestbuy/Walmart bankrupt because Amazon. Q - Games are all going digital no one uses disc anymore. A - 75% of PS5 have disc, only 25% are discless because people still want disc. Q - GameStop going to go bankrupt like Blockbuster. A - You working for Bank of America? Bond holders saying otherwise.
The real DD on SLV, the worlds biggest short squeeze is possible and we can make history
Update 2/4 - someone went ahead and spelled out the mechanics of the squeeze quite well and I would like to give their post attention https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lc8vgo/slv_is_not_going_to_get_squeezedslv_is_the_trojan/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Update 2/2 - I am able to comment again. I messaged several mods on Reddit and the mod account on Twitter. None of them responded but it appears I am able to comment again so I assume one of them lifted my ban Update 2/1 - I have been banned from posting on WSB. I guess they aren’t yet deleting my post here given the media attention. If this was a rogue mod I’d appreciate being restored the ability to post on WSB. I’m open to talking to any mods Update 1/31 - there have been tons of 'what to buy' questions so I added a clarity post, hope it helps. It's also getting downvoted to hell because its not about GME so that's discouraging. The speed at which the downvotes flew in makes me think someone made bots to crush new posts related to SLV (or maybe anything not GME). It makes no sense for this post to have 93% upvotes and my new one to have 28%. I have not sold my GME to buy SLV. I had a small pre-existing position in leaps I bought months ago. Created an official Twitter handle not sure if I’ll use it, but didn’t want anyone to impersonate me on there Here is the longer DD for the short squeeze case for SLV, a follow-up from my shorter post a few hours ago. Note that I talk in first person as this is something I’m going to do. Everyone is free to do as they individually please and copy my trade if they’d like to. I think it’s absurd that forces at be think this forum is manipulating by posting publicly but that’s where we are at right now. First things first, I'm not doing this until the GME rise is done. I am long GME but am going long SLV immediately after. Update 1/29: due to the manipulation and collusion of citadel, hedge funds, and brokers to change the rules and rig the game in their favor. Who likely knew ahead of time and bought puts right before and calls at the bottom, GME is too important to abandon still. SLV is still my next play but GME needs to go to $1000 and these people need to go to jail. If you just want to know what to buy skip to the end I present 2 investment DDs in this post, the short squeeze and the fundamentals. If you want to see what to buy The short squeeze: Buy SLV shares and SLV call options to force physical delivery of silver to the SLV vaults. Also buy physical silver bullion. The best possible thing would be to take physical delivery in the futures market if you have access to do so. The silver futures market has oscillated between having roughly 100-1 and 500-1 ratio of paper traded silver to physical silver, but lets call it 250-1 for now. This means that for every 250 ounces in open interest in the futures market, only 1 actually gets delivered. Most traders would rather settle with cash rather than take delivery of thousands of ounces of silver and have to figure out to store and transport it in the future. The people naked shorting silver via the futures markets are a couple of large banks and making them pay dearly for their over leveraged naked shorts would be incredible. It's not Melvin capital on the other side of this trade, its JP Morgan. Time to get some payback for the bailouts and manipulation they've done for decades (look up silver manipulation fines that JPM has paid over the years). The way the squeeze could occur is by forcing a much higher percentage of the futures contracts to actually deliver physical silver. There is very little silver in the COMEX vaults or available to actually be use to deliver, and if they have to start buying en masse on the open market they will drive the price massively higher. There is no way to magically create more physical silver in the world that is ready to be delivered. With a stock you can eventually just issue more shares if the price rises too much, but this simply isn't the case here. The futures market is kind of the wild west of the financial world. Real commodities are being traded, and if you are short, you literally have to deliver thousands of ounces of silver per contract if the holder on the other side demands it. If you remember oil going negative back in May, that was possible because futures are allowed to trade to their true value. They aren't halted and that's what will make this so fun when the true squeeze happens. Edit for more detail: let’s say there’s one futures seller who gets unlucky and gets the buyer who actually wants to take delivery. He doesn’t have the silver and realizes it’s all of a sudden damn difficult to find some physical silver. He throws up his hands and just goes long a matching number of futures contracts and will demand actual delivery on those. Problem solved because he has now matched the demanding buyer with a new seller. The issue is that the new seller has the same issue and does the exact same thing. This is how the cascade effect of a meltup occurs. All the naked shorts trying to offload their position to someone who actually has some silver. My goal is to ensure that I have the silver and won’t sell to them until silver is at a far higher price due to the desperation. The silver market is much larger than GME in terms of notional value, but there is very little physical silver actually readily available (think about the difference between total shares and the shares in the active float for a stock), and the paper silver trading hands in the futures market is hundreds of times larger than what is available. Thus when they are forced to actually deliver physical silver it will create a massive short squeeze where an absurd amount of silver will be sought after (to fulfill their contractually obligated delivery) with very little available to actually buy. They are naked shorting silver and will have to cover all at once and the float as a percentage of the total silver stock globally is truly miniscule. The fundamentals: The current gold to silver ratio is 73-1. Meaning the price of gold per ounce is 73 times the price of silver. Naturally occurring silver is only 18.75 times as common as gold, so this ratio of 73-1 is quite high. Until the early 20th century, silver prices were pegged at a 15-1 ratio to gold in the US because this ratio was relatively known even then. In terms of current production, the ratio is even lower at 8-1. Meaning the world is only producing 8 ounces of silver for each newly produced ounce of gold. Global industry has been able to get away with producing so little new silver for so long because governments have dumped silver on the market for 80 years, but now their silver vaults are empty. At the end of WW2 government vaults globally contained 10 billion ounces of silver, but as we moved to fiat currency and away from precious metal backed currencies, the amount held by governments has decreased to only 0.24 billion ounces as they dumped their supply into the market. But this dumping is done now as their remaining supply is basically nil. This 0.24 billion ounces represents only 8% of the total supply of only 3 billion ounces stored as investment globally. This means that 92% of that gold is held privately by institutions and by millions of boomer gold and silver bugs who have been sitting on meager gains for decades. These boomers aren't going to sell no matter what because they see their silver cache as part of their doomsday prepper supplies. It's locked away in bunkers they built 500 miles from their house. Also, with silver at $23 an ounce currently, this means all of the worlds investment grade silver only has a total market cap of $70 billion. For comparison the investment grade gold in the world is worth roughly $6 trillion. This is because most of the silver produced each year actually gets used, as I have mentioned. $70 billion sounds like a lot, but we don’t have to buy all that much for the price to go up a lot. **If the squeeze happens, it would be like 40 years worth of their gains in 4 months ** The reason that only 8 ounces of silver are produced for every 1 ounce of gold in today's world is because there aren't really any good naturally occurring silver deposits left in the world. Silver is more common than gold in the earth's crust, but it is spread very thin. Thus nearly every ounce of silver produces is actually a byproduct of mining for other metals such as gold or copper. This means that even as the silver price skyrockets, it wont be easy to increase the supply of silver being produced. Even if new mines were to be constructed, it could take years to come online. Finally, most of this newly created silver supply each year is used for productive purposes rather than kept for investment. It is used in electronics, solar panels, and jewelry for the most part. This demand wont go away if the silver price rises, so the short sellers will be trying to get their hands on a very small slice of newly minted silver. The solar market is also growing quickly and political pressure to increase solar and electric vehicles could provide more industrial demand. The other part of the story is the faster moving piece and that is the inflation and currency debasement fear portion. The government and the fed are printing money like crazy debasing the value of the dollar, so investors look for real assets like precious metals to hide out in, driving demand for silver. The $1.9 trillion stimulus passing in a month or two could be a good catalyst. All this money combined with the reopening of the economy could cause some solid inflation to occur, and once inflation starts it often feeds on itself. What to buy: Edit 2/24: I now advocate buying PSLV for shares, physical metal if the premiums come back down, and if you want options then SLV is still ok for that. I will be putting 50% directly into SLV shares, and 50% into the $35 strike SLV calls expiring 4/16. This way the SLV purchase creates a groundswell into silver immediately that then rockets through a gamma squeeze as SLV approaches $35. Price target of $75 for SLV by end of April if the short squeeze happens. Edit: for the part of your purchases going into shares, some people recommend PSLV because they think SLV might start lying about having the silver in their vault. Or that the custodian will be double counting, ie claiming that the same silver belongs to multiple people (banking on the fact that people wont all try to get their silver at once). So if you buy SLV shares and calls, that's great. But I think it could be prudent for us to buy options in SLV (no options on PSLV) and shares in PSLV. It all depends on how paranoid you want to be. There is a lot of paranoia in the precious metals world. Alternate options: - buying physical silver; this also works but you pay a premium to buy and sell so its less efficient and you take fewer silver ounces off of the market because of the premium you pay - going long futures for February or March; if you are a rich bastard and can actually take physical delivery of 1000s of ounces of silver by all means do so. But if you simply settle for cash you are actually part of the problem. We need actual physical delivery, which is what SLV demands and is why SLV is the way to go unless you are going to take delivery - miners; I don’t recommend buying miners as part of this trade. Miners will absolutely go up if SLV goes up, but buying them doesn't create the squeeze in the actual silver market. Furthermore, most silver miners only derive 30-50% of their revenue from silver anyways, so eventually SLV will outperform them as it gets high enough (and each marginal SLV dollar only increases miner profits by a smaller and smaller percentage) Details on SLV physical settlement: When SLV issues shares, the custodian is forced to true up their vaults with the proportional amount of silver daily. From the SLV prospectus: "An investment in Shares is: Backed by silver held by the Custodian on behalf of the Trust. The Shares are backed by the assets of the Trust. The Trustee’s arrangements with the Custodian contemplate that at the end of each business day there can be in the Trust account maintained by the Custodian no more than 1,100 ounces of silver in an unallocated form. The bulk of the Trust’s silver holdings is represented by physical silver, identified on the Custodian’s or, if applicable, sub-custodian's, books in allocated and unallocated accounts on behalf of the Trust and is held by the Custodian in London, New York and other locations that may be authorized in the future." Join me brothers. Lets take silver to the moon and take on the biggest and baddest manipulators in the world. Please post rocket emojis in the comments as desired. Disclaimer: do your own research, make your own decisions, everything here is a guess and hypothetical and nothing is guaranteed, not a financial advisor, I have ADHD and maybe other things too. Bear case: silver does tend to sell off if the broader market plunges so it’s not immune to broad market sell off. It’s also the most manipulated market in the world so we are facing some tough competition on the short side
Okay I see way to many new investors/traders posting about how undervalued SNDL is because “it’s $1 a share when other companies are $30 a share!”. A companies value is determined by multiplying share price by number of shares, most of these other companies just have way less shares. Sundial is valued around 1.6bil currently with it’s $1.13 share price, Aurora is valued at 2.5bil with it’s $12.80 share price. Look at a companies market cap against its financials to gauge if a company is undervalued, not its share price and historical chart. I hope this is helpful to newer people.
GME - EndGame Part 2: Cohen, Market Cap, Potential Investors
Hello again folks. This is an extension of my DD last week in which I shared some research on short positions, GME’s debt, and some speculation on institutional investing. Since that post, GME is up 75% and there’s been lots of good bullish / bearish DD on the short term. In this post, I’m going to cover 3 topics, focusing on the mid-to-long term prospects for GME: 1) Cohen, 2) GME’s market cap potential, and 3) potential investors that could continue to pile in. TL:DR; You need to think about GME differently. Not as a trader. Not as an investor. You need to think like a venture capitalist. This is an unprecedented opportunity, and the first time I’ve gone all-in - I’m more bullish now than when the stock was trading sub $15. If you’re in GME you need to get in with conviction otherwise you’re going to lose by selling when it drops.
Quick aside - my history and positions:
I’ve been a passive investor for many years. This is literally the first time I’ve taken an interest in becoming an active investor. I opened an RH account in August to start speculating on GME. My first post called out some cheap lottery plays that took my speculating account from $5K - $20K in 3 weeks. I’ve since posted a few times on GME, even trying to tell you to buy the post-earnings dip, and added more to my active trading accounts. I’ve taken $10K -> $130K on RH and $230K -> $480K in IBKR since slowly adding to GME since September. UPDATE: I have deleted my positions in this post - will explain why in my next post. I'm still holding. All that being said, thus far I’ve been thinking about GME as a trade - trying to get in at the lowest cost I could for the maximum upside on a near-term exit, but I’ve switched completely into thinking of GME is a ridiculously asymmetric investment with massive potential in the next 2-3 year timeframe - even at $35. Even at $45, $50, $60. That’s why I added roughly 2500 shares on Friday at around $36 despite adding very cautiously when GME was below $20. I’m also completely all-in on RH with options (mostly deep ITM, a few fds) - $0 buying power left. Grab a drink, sit down. Let me tell you why I’ve gotten more aggressive, and probably why you shouldn’t worry about what price you pay right now, as long as you’re willing to believe and hold.
About Cohen (and friends)
From the recent 8K about the board changes (which you should definitely read if you’re putting serious money in): As part of the Agreement, RC Ventures has agreed tocustomary standstill provisions*, which provide that from the date of the Agreement until the earlier of (a) the date that is 30 calendar days prior to the deadline for the submission of director nominations by stockholders for the Company’s* 2022annual meeting of stockholders and (b) the date that is 120 days prior to the first anniversary of the 2021 Annual Meeting (such period, the “Standstill Period”), RC Ventures willnot, among other things: (i) acquire beneficial ownership in, or aggregate economic exposure to, directly or indirectly, more than 19.9%of the Company’s outstanding common stock; (ii) make any proposal for consideration by stockholders at any annual or special meeting of stockholders of the Company; (iii) make any offer or proposal with respect to any extraordinary transactions; or (iv) seek, alone or in concert with others, the appointment, election or removal of any directors in opposition to any recommendation of the Board, in each case as further described in the Agreement. As part of the Agreement, the Company has permitted RC Ventures to acquire, whether in a single transaction or multiple transactions from time to time, additional shares of the Company’s common stock to the extent such acquisitions would result in RC Ventures having beneficial ownership of less than 20.0% of the outstanding shares, without triggering the restrictions that would otherwise be imposed under Section 203 of the Delaware General Corporation Law (the “DGCL”), and RC Ventures has agreed that upon acquiring beneficial ownership 20.0% or more of the outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock, the restrictions under Section 203 of the DGCL would apply to a potential business combination with RC Ventures as an “interested stockholder” (as defined in Section 203 of the DGCL). This is critical: This agreement was the result of a negotiation between Cohen and the existing board.
After his activist letter calling out the board and then 13D buy after the earnings dip rocketed the stock up from 12 -> 20, it was clear to everyone that RC was the reason GME’s stock was heading up. The GME board was afraid of a hostile takeover / losing their jobs. This agreement allowed Cohen and 2 others on the board as long as he didn’t attempt a hostile takeover.
Cohen wants it all. In the activist letter, he publicly said “no” to just one board seat. He then publicly bought more as soon as Sherman threatened a shelf offering to dilute him below 10%.
Alan Attal - the previous COO and CMO of Chewy (2011 - 2018)
Jim Grube - the previous CFO of Chewy (2015 - 2018)
He’s not fucking around folks. He wants to build another Chewy, and he’s bringing the people who helped him do it the first time to do it again. As a result of the agreement, he’s limited to buying up to 20% of shares until 2022. Why not 13%? Simple - Cohen wants the option to buy more. He’s not happy with a single board seat; he’s not going to settle for simply getting added to the board; and he’s not going to settle for 13% ownership. Also, remember that Alan and Jim have 💲 to buy in as well. I haven't seen their holdings yet. Their time is worth more than their money and they've already decided to put their time in.
Cohen is not an exec - he’s a founder with an all-in mentality
“When I find things I have a lot ofconvictionin, I goall-in*.”*
Cohen is a founder that has gone through the successful creation of a startup. When you are startup founder, most of your NW is tied to equity in your company. You are trained to have skin in the game. You’re not allowed to think you have a safety net. You give up years of your life and bet everything because you have to believe in what you’re doing. Founders typically have 30-50% ownership of their company.
“Cohen uses the word “conviction” a lot. He says it’s something he learned from his father, who ran a glassware importing business in Montreal where Cohen grew up. “He taught me how to block the noise from the masses,” says Cohen. “To have a point of view and have conviction and not waver.”
He only sold Chewy rather taking it to IPO because of his Dad’s health. He cut his entrepreneurial career short and he’s itching to get back in.
Cohen sold Chewy for $3.35B, with estimates stating he personally walked away with about $600M after taxes.
Cohen has a lot of capital to buy more. After selling Chewy, he went all-in on Apple & WFC, which as of June was up 40%.
“ Cohen says his portfolio, when including dividends and a few other stock holdings, has returned more than 40% over the past 3 years, beating the market.”
Aapl was his largest holding, andis up another 50% since June 5 when the Bloomberg article was published.
Cohen lives in FL - with no income or capital gains for individuals, unlike other founders who live in CA which taxes all cap gains as ordinary income.
I’m going to estimate his net worth (minus his GME holdings) is around $800M-$1B.
Cohen’s 9,001,000 (it’s over 9000! 🐲🏐) shares have thus far been purchased at something like an average of $12/share, for a total investment of around $110M.
So Cohen has put in $110M out of his $1B into GME. Does that sound like he’s all-in? Absolutely fucking not. Cohen’s going to buy up to the max he can this year (20%), likely by selling some other holdings prior to cap gains tax law changes. He can add more next year after the standstill period is done.
What will lead to Cohen’s next purchase of GME
Thus far, every RC purchase has been about sending a message.
Prior to Q3 earnings, his purchases were signaling an intent to the board that he was serious about wanting to get involved. He also rubbed it in their faces that the stock price was largely appreciating because of him. From the activist letter:
“We recognize that the Board may feel it is insulated from stockholder scrutiny after adding new directors this past spring and seeing a recent stock price uptick (which only came on the heels of RC Ventures filing its 13D)” (what a fucking burn).
If there was any doubt about RC’s impact on the stock price, it was put to rest after Q3’s earnings, where the current leadership’s hubris and threat of diluting RC led to a drop of almost 30%. RC then bought the dip, shoved it in their faces, and the market GME again rocketing GME to 20 in a massive post-earnings recovery. Message sent again - “The market wants me. Let me the fuck in.”
Now that Cohen and the Chewy folks are on the board, he’s going to angle for CEO. He’s not looking to advise GME. He wants to go all-in, to run GME. He’s holding the optionality of buying more based on the success of his attempt to take over GME through non-hostile means.
If you see Cohen buy more GME, he’s sending another message. This time it’s because it’s clear to him he’s going to be CEO and wants to max his skin in the game. If you see Cohen buy, it’s “CEO talks going well” - you fucking buy.
GME’s market cap potential
Cohen sees a $200BN+ total addressable market cap for gaming by 2023. For contrast, Chewy was playing in the pet food/supplies market, which has a total addressable market (TAM) of under $50BN annually. GME’s potential is at base 4x that of Chewy. This does not even account for the pc gaming hardware market, which is another $35BN+.
Chewy’s market cap is $44BN on $6BN of annual revenue.
In other words, even if you give GME’s physical locations no value, GME’s ecommerce business is growing 5x faster than Chewy and already has 75% of online revenue. Summary: Chewy is priced > 7X times its annual total revenue. GME is priced at .45 its annual ecommerce revenue, despite GME having 5-6 greater TAM and growing its ecommerce business 5X as fast Chewy. What. The. Fuck. I’ve never seen a stock more mispriced. People talking about $100 price targets are suffering from a fucking lack of imagination. Even if you completely discount
An asset is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it, right? So are the potential buyers of this growing company? Here’s a list in decreasing order of likelihood.
Elon (Least likely, completely improbable, but cataclysmic event). Elon hates shorts. Elon, with TSLA, went through the pain that GME is going through. TSLA almost went bankrupt because shorts were pushing the price down so it was difficult to raise the cash they needed to survive. Sound familiar? Elon’s wealth swings more in a day than GME is worth in entirety. Elon could buy all the fucking float of GME with what he makes in 8 hours. One call from fellow entrepreneur and aspiring twitter-meme-god would absolutely wreck the game.
If you are short gamestop, you are one meme purchase by the richest man in the world away from a fucking cataclysmic event. "Hey son, I heard you like games. So I bought you gamestop. All of it." 🚀
Buffett (More likely, still improbable). I’m actually amazed that while Buffett & co were lamenting that there are no interesting stocks to invest in and moving to cash, that they absolutely missed the boat on GME while it was at its lows. It’s a complete value play right up his alley (in a business he can understand). My only hypothesis here is that the market cap is too small and he could not make a meaningful investment. Once GME grows to a more respectable market cap ($10b+) I can see Buffett stepping in and making an investment.
Cohen’s connections. (Highly likely if Cohen is CEO). This is the big one. And I mean absolutely nail in the coffin re-pricing of GME for the foreseeable future. Go read this Harvard Business Review piece on Cohen specifically on how Cohen puts importance on raising money and the people that backed him.
Look, I’ve started a startup before in the valley (unsuccessfully unfortunately). However, you don’t start a company without making a shit-ton of venture capitalist & angel investor connections. Cohen has stated that when pitching Chewy he was rejected by over 100 investors. I can absolutely-fucking-guarantee you that every single one of them remembers their mistake and would not miss the opportunity to invest in Cohen again. And don’t forget all of the investors who DID invest with Cohen and reaped the benefits with Chewy. While venture capitalists don’t generally make investments in public equities, this is a truly unique situation. Cohen is treating this like a rebirth, a new venture bootstrapped from GME’s bones. If VCs as a firm will not invest, you can bet your ass that those individuals will throw their personal money at Cohen. However this only happens if he’s CEO. As soon as he’s CEO, a single long weekend trip to the valley might mean 100+ investor meetings with the strategic pitch.
My biggest fear here is that VCs/PE band to take the company private at some small multiple (2-3x) and then reap the benefits while Cohen turns the company around only to re-list it to us 5 years down the road at 30X the valuation.
Thus far, it’s been us retail retards vs the wall street shorts. HFs shorting this thing have the advantage in both tactics and capital. However, if Silicon Valley money starts pouring money into this the game is over. You cannot believe the amount of money that gets thrown into startups with 90% of it burning up into thin air. $3B market cap? That’s nothing. Folks with Silicon Valley money & risk tolerance would have no problem betting on a serial entrepreneur making something amazing out of a company that already has a customer base, revenue, distribution - all in the same business (e-commerce) the entrepreneur already proved themselves in.
You, and every other retard that believes. Look, this was my point at the beginning. You need to think like a VC here. VCs are the ultimate YOLO autists making million dollar bets and not seeing a penny of it for years. They are the ultimate 💎✋🤚. You need to decide if you have conviction for the long term and then buy in. 💎✋🤚 doesn’t mean selling at $100. It doesn’t means selling at $200. It means not selling at all this year no matter the price, and at least until you learn for sure whether Cohen is the new CEO. It means believing so hard that you 20-100X your investment in 2 years when the market wakes up to the ridiculous mispricing.
Remember that if Cohen is elected CEO he can (and likely will) buy more than a 20% stake in 2022.
I’ve put every dollar I can into shares in IBKR, minus some April calls. I hold no covered calls except for some call spreads I had in RH prior to recent bump. I have April calls because I will put more cash into GME after taxes are done, and I know much cash I have to use. Calls let me cap the price I would have to pay now. This is personal research. Do your own DD. A wiser investor than me gave the advice of “Don’t aim to maximise profit, minimize regret.” If you’re not in GME yet, ask yourself how you would truly feel if what everyone here is saying panned out to be true, and you weren’t participating. Oh, and of course: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Update 1: I'm still holding today, but I realized I made a pretty big mistake on the ecommerce revenue analysis. GME's 2019 e-commerce revenue was 1.35B (not 1.35B for the quarter), so divide my price target by 4 - $125/share or $8B market cap.
Reminder - Whether you own GME or not - CHANGE YOUR GODDAMN BROKER
Hello everyone, Last weekend I created a thread, in which I documented which brokers stopped people from purchasing specific securities, and which ones didn't. Before it gets forgotten, I want to bring that list back again, and insist that you get a new broker if yours is one of the bad ones. This is a much, MUCH bigger issue than you think, and this can and WILL affect you eventually, if you stay with a broker that decides that you cannot trade a security that they don't want you to trade. Note that the securities affected were not just meme stocks, several large stocks some of you might own or have heard about were restricted and their price was thus manipulated, including:
General Motors
Rolls Royce
Trivago
Workhorse Group
Jaguar Health
And many more. When boomer stocks get affected, this means the entire free market is at risk and the next time this happens you might be the one unable to trade your favorite stock if you continue using a bad discount broker. Whether this is the broker's fault or their clearinghouse's fault is irrelevant, the result is your inability to engage in the free market. This behavior needs to be punished to ensure other brokers don't start doing the same thing. Here is my list of brokers which I will continue to update, as per the previous thread:
Horrible Brokers - Restricted purchasing of certain tickets and lied/gloated about it
TD Ameritrade/Canada - Proof - Proof2 - (Margin requirements increased, Covered call and short put orders may only be placed with a broker and support times are > 2h, other trades restricted) - Neutral because they didn't restrict the purchase of stocks with cash.
CORSAIR EARNINGS PLAY, The DD you've been waiting for
Corsair Gaming ($CRSR) Redefining gaming, eSports, and streaming Company Overview Corsair Gaming is an American computer hardware and peripherals company founded in 1994 and headquartered in California. They acquired Elgato Gaming in 2018 to expand to the streaming gear market, Origin PC and SCUF gaming in 2019 to expand into the custom-built PC systems and console controllers markets, respectively, and during 2020 they acquired Gamer Sensei and EpocCam, and partnered with Pipeline to grow into the gaming and streaming coaching market. Corsair went public on September 23, 2020, with its IPO priced at $17, valuing the company at about $1.3B. Understanding the Business Value Proposition Corsair provides specialized, high-performance gear for gamers and streamers. Their products are designed to provide speed and reliability for competitive gaming, high quality content for streamers, and powerful PC components that allows gamers to run modern games smoothly. Revenue Streams Currently, Corsair groups its product offering into two segments: gamer and creator peripherals and gaming components and systems. Gamer and Creator Peripherals: which represents around 25% of net revenue, includes gaming mice, keyboards, and headsets, streaming gear, and high performance console controllers. Gaming Components Systems: which represents around 75% of net revenue includes computer cases, power supply units (PSU), high performance memory products (40% of net revenue), and custom-built gaming systems. Acquisitions and Partnerships: During 3Q 2020 Corsair acquired Gamer Sensei, a gaming coaching platform, EpocCam, an app that allows iPhones to serve as a webcam, and partnered with Pipeline, a course-based education platform for streamers. Industry Market Size According to Jon Peddie Research, the global gaming and streaming gear markets is expected to reach $40B by the end of 2020. Before the pandemic JPR estimated the market to grow at a modest 1.05% CAGR until 2022. However, during 2020 the market has grown an estimated 10% year-over-year. Additionally, DFC Intelligence research estimated that the video-game coaching market surpasses $1B. Industry Fundamentals Growth in the gaming and streaming gear industries are driven by strong and robust fundamentals. Popularity of gaming is increasing: According to Newzoo, there are an estimated 2.7B gamers worldwide, which are expected to spend $159B on games in 2020 and is expected to grow at an 8.3% CAGR to exceed $200B by 2023. PC and console gaming represents 51% of the total market, and mobile gaming 49%. Corsair has stated that currently there is no interest in expanding to the mobile gaming market. Tech-driven improvements in game quality: Advances in computer power have enabled gaming platforms to provide increasingly immersive experiences. This in turn, places increased demand on high-performance computing hardware. Increasing gaming and streaming engagement: Some interesting facts reported in the Limelight Networks’ State of Online Gaming 2019 research report include:
On average, video gamers spend six hours and 20 minutes each week playing video games
More than 38% of gamers would like to become professionals if it could support themselves
Gamers from novice to aspiring professionals report missing daily activities due to gaming, missed sleep is the most pervasive
Watching gamers play video games online is more popular than watching traditional sports for 18-25 year olds.
The eSports and streaming flywheel The rise in popularity and viewership of eSports brings more investment from publishers, sponsors, advertisers, team owners, and leagues to the eSports industry. Increased investment brings more players and increased performance focus of gamers who advance from less engaged gaming to high-performance gameplay, which in turn brings more viewers. Competitive Landscape & Risks Competition The gaming and streaming market is characterized by intense competition, constant price pressure and rapid change. Competition across Corsair’s product offering includes: Gaming keyboards and mice - Logitech and Razer Headsets and related audio products -Logitech, Razer, and HyperX Streaming gear - Logitech and AVerMedia Performance controllers - Microsoft and Logitech PSUs, cooling solutions, and computer cases - Cooler Master, NZXT, EVGA, Seasonic, and Thermaltake High performance memory - G.Skill, HyperX, and Micron Pre-built and custom-built gaming PCs - Alienware (Dell), Omen (HP), Asus, Razer, iBuypower and Cyberpower Competitive Strategy The company follows a differentiation leadership strategy by prioritizing high-performance and professional quality and charging a price premium on their products in exchange for superior quality, high value added features, and superior brand recognition. Market Share According to NPD Group, by 2020 Corsair had #1 market share position in the US in its gaming components and systems products with 42% of the market share from 26% in 2015. Their gamer and creator peripheral products are not yet market leaders, however, the company increased its market share in that segment from 5% in 2013 to 18% by 2020 in the US. Growth Strategy Move into the Asia Pacific region: The Asia Pacific Region represents a long-term growth opportunity. According to Newzoo, they represent 54% of the global gaming community. Complimentary acquisitions: Corsair has carried out this strategy aggressively since 2018 with the acquisitions of Elgato Gaming, Origin PC, SCUF and Gamer Sensei. They plan to continue evaluating and pursuing new acquisitions that may strengthen their competitive position. New Markets: Uses of streaming gear has spread into areas including, podcasting, video blogging, interactive fitness, remote learning, and work-from-home, which represent a promising avenue for continued expansion in this product segment. Threat of New Entrants Because of the continued convergence between the computing devices and consumer electronics markets, increased competition from well-established consumer electronics companies is expected in the gaming and streaming peripherals segment (e.g. use of Audio-technica microphones by streamers). Threat of Substitution A significant medium- to long-term risk for Corsair’s business model is the evolution of cloud computing and augmented/virtual reality entertainment. Cloud computing refers to a computing environment in which software is run on third-party servers and accessed by end users over the internet, requiring minimal processing power from the end-user’s system. Through cloud computing, gamers will be able to access and play sophisticated games without the need of expensive high-performance PC systems and components. According to Grand View Research, the global cloud gaming market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 48% from 2020 to reach $7.2B by 2027. Additionally, Corsair must be able to adapt its product offering to meet the needs of the evolving augmented/virtual reality industry. Moats There does not seem to be any relevant, structural moats, that may prohibit competitors from capturing Corsair’s market share across their product offering. Other Relevant Risks Due to the concentration of their production facilities in Taiwan and China, Corsair may be adversely by geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. Financial Summary Proforma Balance Sheet https://postimg.cc/QHgY1ZxL Income Statement https://postimg.cc/qNkbGDzN For the 9 months ended September 2020 compared to the same period last year: The 49% increase in net revenue is mostly attributed to a large number of consumers gaming and working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic. The company’s gross margin is influenced by its product mix for the period, gamer and creator peripherals have a higher gross margin (25-35%) than gaming components and systems (15-25%). Proforma Cashflow Statement https://postimg.cc/XXCzNyRY Cash used in investing activities consists primarily on the acquisitions of Elgato in 2018, and SCUF and Origin PC in 2019. Peer Comparison https://postimg.cc/Whcfd1V6 Logitech International (LOGI) and Micron Technologies (MU) Why am I posting this now? I believe they are going to have very strong 4th quarter 2020 earning results. 2020 had record pc sales,and pc video games has reported record numbers of players. They are in my opinion the leading pc peripherals brand for gamers. Q4 Earnings Include both Black Friday and Christmas Sales Record pc sales: https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/record-pc-sales-in-2020-as-covid-limits-work-education-to-homes/story/427858.html#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20data,units%20in%20Q4%20of%202020&text=COVID%2D19%20pandemic%20has%20turned,personal%20computer%20(PC)%20industry%20industry). Google trends: https://imgur.com/oKPn6R5 My price target for this earnings: $65 EDIT: (EOM) TLDR: $CRSR will crush Q4 earnings🚀 🚀 🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀 🚀 🚀 Position: 60 Contracts 40c exp 2/19 disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH credit: u/italiansomali and u/erythaean
Educate yourself on the battle ahead. GameStop investor relations resources.
It’s the weekend. What else are going to do? Educate yourself so you know what you’re getting into. This isn’t financial advice. GameStop investor relations home page https://news.gamestop.com/home-page Institutional ownership of GME https://news.gamestop.com/stock-information/institutional-ownership Who owns the shares, who wants the share to go up, what percentage of shares are in index funds, who will have your best interest as a shareholder when shit gets popping is answered here Holiday sales number for 2020 https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-reports-2020-holiday-sales-results I want to highlight 309% increase in online sales and online retail transition is something Ryan Cohen is advocating. Also shows the effects of weak store closures and covid. Interesting read. Ryan Cohen and new additions to the board of directors https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-additional-board-refreshment-accelerate This right here is what started it all. It highlights expertise, resumes, and future visions. Q3 earnings release https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-reports-third-quarter-results-positive-start-fourth This is the previous earnings report. Good information lending insight into the progression into the 5th generation of consoles. Q4 being reported slated for 3/25. Conference call logs https://news.gamestop.com/events-and-presentations If you actually listen to all of these as a podcast, you need to go outside and take a walk. You haven’t seen the sun in weeks. GameStop careers https://careers.gamestop.com Be the change you want to see. Work for the company and influence from within. Two words: stock options. The actual website https://www.gamestop.com There’s some awesome sales going on right now. There’s been a lot of sales like buy 5 for $10 or 4 for $30 and this is moving products off the shelves. Did you know that they also sell electronics like TVs, drones, and smart home devices? Giving Best Buy a run for their money. GameStop Twitter Twitter.com/gamestop This is where most of the PR happens. 2 days ago, they tweeted about Magic the Gathering right at market close. https://twitter.com/gamestop/status/1354172351449980928?s=21 Elon Musk tweeted a Magic the Gathering meme to follow up and then shouted out /wallstreetbets https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1354202453252710402?s=21 Twitch chat is the best DD Twitch.tv/GameStop Upcoming gaming events that could potentially impact the trading price of GME in the next months Taipei Game Show January 28th-31st https://tgs.tca.org.tw/index_2b_e.php?PHPSESSID=0mqn5v4d8ldc3vnfrumrq0epi2 Blizzcon 2021 February 19th-20th https://blizzcon.com Anticipated upcoming game releases Elden Ring God of War 2: Ragnarok Resident Evil Village Far Cry 6 Death Loop Horizon: Forbidden West Halo: Infinite Hogwarts Legacy Gotham Knights Gran Turismo 7 Hollow Knight: Silksong Diablo 4 Overwatch 2 Breath of the Wild 2 Persona 5 Strikers 25th anniversary Pokémon games and remasters As you can see lots of heavy hitters coming this year. Honorable mention: markets would crash if Grand Theft Auto 6 is announced Half Life 3 is announced Skyrim 2 or Elder Scrolls 6 release date revealed World of Warcraft 2 is announced Confirmed existence of Chess 2 TLDR: Not financial advice but I am holding til they pay me what it’s worth. https://i.imgur.com/2HdNvR9.jpg
Corsair Gaming ($CRSR) Redefining gaming, eSports, and streaming Company Overview Corsair Gaming is an American computer hardware and peripherals company founded in 1994 and headquartered in California. They acquired Elgato Gaming in 2018 to expand to the streaming gear market, Origin PC and SCUF gaming in 2019 to expand into the custom-built PC systems and console controllers markets, respectively, and during 2020 they acquired Gamer Sensei and EpocCam, and partnered with Pipeline to grow into the gaming and streaming coaching market. Corsair went public on September 23, 2020, with its IPO priced at $17, valuing the company at about $1.3B. Understanding the Business Value Proposition Corsair provides specialized, high-performance gear for gamers and streamers. Their products are designed to provide speed and reliability for competitive gaming, high quality content for streamers, and powerful PC components that allows gamers to run modern games smoothly. Revenue Streams Currently, Corsair groups its product offering into two segments: gamer and creator peripherals and gaming components and systems. Gamer and Creator Peripherals: which represents around 25% of net revenue, includes gaming mice, keyboards, and headsets, streaming gear, and high performance console controllers. Gaming Components Systems: which represents around 75% of net revenue includes computer cases, power supply units (PSU), high performance memory products (40% of net revenue), and custom-built gaming systems. Acquisitions and Partnerships: During 3Q 2020 Corsair acquired Gamer Sensei, a gaming coaching platform, EpocCam, an app that allows iPhones to serve as a webcam, and partnered with Pipeline, a course-based education platform for streamers. Industry Market Size According to Jon Peddie Research, the global gaming and streaming gear markets is expected to reach $40B by the end of 2020. Before the pandemic JPR estimated the market to grow at a modest 1.05% CAGR until 2022. However, during 2020 the market has grown an estimated 10% year-over-year. Additionally, DFC Intelligence research estimated that the video-game coaching market surpasses $1B. Industry Fundamentals Growth in the gaming and streaming gear industries are driven by strong and robust fundamentals. Popularity of gaming is increasing: According to Newzoo, there are an estimated 2.7B gamers worldwide, which are expected to spend $159B on games in 2020 and is expected to grow at an 8.3% CAGR to exceed $200B by 2023. PC and console gaming represents 51% of the total market, and mobile gaming 49%. Corsair has stated that currently there is no interest in expanding to the mobile gaming market. Tech-driven improvements in game quality: Advances in computer power have enabled gaming platforms to provide increasingly immersive experiences. This in turn, places increased demand on high-performance computing hardware. Increasing gaming and streaming engagement: Some interesting facts reported in the Limelight Networks’ State of Online Gaming 2019 research report include:
On average, video gamers spend six hours and 20 minutes each week playing video games
More than 38% of gamers would like to become professionals if it could support themselves
Gamers from novice to aspiring professionals report missing daily activities due to gaming, missed sleep is the most pervasive
Watching gamers play video games online is more popular than watching traditional sports for 18-25 year olds.
The eSports and streaming flywheel The rise in popularity and viewership of eSports brings more investment from publishers, sponsors, advertisers, team owners, and leagues to the eSports industry. Increased investment brings more players and increased performance focus of gamers who advance from less engaged gaming to high-performance gameplay, which in turn brings more viewers. Competitive Landscape & Risks Competition The gaming and streaming market is characterized by intense competition, constant price pressure and rapid change. Competition across Corsair’s product offering includes: Gaming keyboards and mice - Logitech and Razer Headsets and related audio products -Logitech, Razer, and HyperX Streaming gear - Logitech and AVerMedia Performance controllers - Microsoft and Logitech PSUs, cooling solutions, and computer cases - Cooler Master, NZXT, EVGA, Seasonic, and Thermaltake High performance memory - G.Skill, HyperX, and Micron Pre-built and custom-built gaming PCs - Alienware (Dell), Omen (HP), Asus, Razer, iBuypower and Cyberpower Competitive Strategy The company follows a differentiation leadership strategy by prioritizing high-performance and professional quality and charging a price premium on their products in exchange for superior quality, high value added features, and superior brand recognition. Market Share According to NPD Group, by 2020 Corsair had #1 market share position in the US in its gaming components and systems products with 42% of the market share from 26% in 2015. Their gamer and creator peripheral products are not yet market leaders, however, the company increased its market share in that segment from 5% in 2013 to 18% by 2020 in the US. Growth Strategy Move into the Asia Pacific region: The Asia Pacific Region represents a long-term growth opportunity. According to Newzoo, they represent 54% of the global gaming community. Complimentary acquisitions: Corsair has carried out this strategy aggressively since 2018 with the acquisitions of Elgato Gaming, Origin PC, SCUF and Gamer Sensei. They plan to continue evaluating and pursuing new acquisitions that may strengthen their competitive position. New Markets: Uses of streaming gear has spread into areas including, podcasting, video blogging, interactive fitness, remote learning, and work-from-home, which represent a promising avenue for continued expansion in this product segment. Threat of New Entrants Because of the continued convergence between the computing devices and consumer electronics markets, increased competition from well-established consumer electronics companies is expected in the gaming and streaming peripherals segment (e.g. use of Audio-technica microphones by streamers). Threat of Substitution A significant medium- to long-term risk for Corsair’s business model is the evolution of cloud computing and augmented/virtual reality entertainment. Cloud computing refers to a computing environment in which software is run on third-party servers and accessed by end users over the internet, requiring minimal processing power from the end-user’s system. Through cloud computing, gamers will be able to access and play sophisticated games without the need of expensive high-performance PC systems and components. According to Grand View Research, the global cloud gaming market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 48% from 2020 to reach $7.2B by 2027. Additionally, Corsair must be able to adapt its product offering to meet the needs of the evolving augmented/virtual reality industry. Moats There does not seem to be any relevant, structural moats, that may prohibit competitors from capturing Corsair’s market share across their product offering. Other Relevant Risks Due to the concentration of their production facilities in Taiwan and China, Corsair may be adversely by geopolitical tensions and trade disputes. Financial Summary Proforma Balance Sheet https://postimg.cc/QHgY1ZxL Income Statement https://postimg.cc/qNkbGDzN For the 9 months ended September 2020 compared to the same period last year: The 49% increase in net revenue is mostly attributed to a large number of consumers gaming and working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic. The company’s gross margin is influenced by its product mix for the period, gamer and creator peripherals have a higher gross margin (25-35%) than gaming components and systems (15-25%). Proforma Cashflow Statement https://postimg.cc/XXCzNyRY Cash used in investing activities consists primarily on the acquisitions of Elgato in 2018, and SCUF and Origin PC in 2019. Peer Comparison https://postimg.cc/Whcfd1V6 Logitech International (LOGI) and Micron Technologies (MU) Why am I posting this now? I believe they are going to have very strong 4th quarter 2020 earning results. 2020 had record pc sales,and pc video games has reported record numbers of players. They are in my opinion the leading pc peripherals brand for gamers. They also have strong support from wallstreetbets. Record pc sales: https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/record-pc-sales-in-2020-as-covid-limits-work-education-to-homes/story/427858.html#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20data,units%20in%20Q4%20of%202020&text=COVID%2D19%20pandemic%20has%20turned,personal%20computer%20(PC)%20industry%20industry). Google trends: https://imgur.com/oKPn6R5 My price target for this earnings: $55 disclaimer:I am not a financial advisor. Do not trade based on the information I have posted. credit: u/italiansomali and u/erythaean
I will never buy digital games again and $GME is why. Maybe you shouldnt either.
Back in the late 90s the USA government gave the major telecoms billions to build out broadband infrastructure. They just upgraded a few areas and rolled the rest into profit. No one got called out on it, no one got fined. Now the USA is behind the world in connectivity and speed. The pandemic has forced millions of Americans to work from home, Comcast, Time Warner, Cox, etc... say hmmm DATA CAPS. COD is like 120G now(I probably exaggerated but it feels like it)? Damn, one game, 2 or 3 movies and some zoom meetings, and BAM data cap. That one game was half my data cap, and it was just an UPDATE? We all buy physical (I stopped buying digital games on my console 3 months ago because of data caps). In 30 years people collect these anyway like gameboy cartridges. Chewy has a market cap of close to 43b $. That's dogs and cat. I dont know but RC can take GME this way. Gaming is a 12b/y growth, and only growing more. In 5 years GME is worth 60B market cap (or more). That's $860/share. I'll give my shares to these guys for 10x now, or just hold them for 5 years. $8600 is my value Today. You can have my shares for that price. Retail stores also create more jobs than just buying online. I know: downloading is eaier, but going in also gives you something to do. Dont look at it as a chore, but a feeling of having Megaman in your hand again... (Disclaimer: this is not financial advice, just my opinion. I have a small position in GME that would not move the price in any significant way, and does not require SEC filing) [Edit: grammar, position, disclaimer, I also post when I'm drunk so take me with a grain of salt.] [2nd edit: Incase anyone is wondering: the first gaming experience I had, that I can remember, was gauntlet on Colicovision, my dad and aunt had to FIGHT people at Zares (target bought them out) for a NES, my aunt punched an old lady for a NES, best family story ever). We were poor, but poor people still found a way to save up it for a NES to share. I had zelda gold cartridge ( no clue what happened to it ).]
"I think I've lived long enough to see competitive Counter-Strike as we know it, kill itself." Summary of Richard Lewis' stream (Long)
I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to. Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547 I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can. I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts. Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T
Intro
"The last month has convinced me, that we are going to be heading into a dark place for Counter-Strike esports in 2021."
"I think I've seen the scene essentially kill itself."
"For the past 5 to 6 years, we've basically been in a holding pattern of people coming into our game wanting to run it, wanting to run all of the esports and wanting to profiteer and its been sort of a concerted effort to drive them off and push them away."
"We're spread way too thin."
"If Riot don't get involved and stop the scumbags that have moved over to Valorant from getting their feet under the table, Valorant is going to have real problems."
RL thinks too much has happened all at once for us to do anything except watch it play out, like:
Recent CSPPA strike against BLAST
ESIC failures and them not being supported enough
Teams cheating i.e. coaches/bugs
Widespread match fixing
The Pandemic
"People who try to hold bubble events are so incompetent and fuck up and people get the 'rona and its their fault."
"People who say Flashpoint is a bubble is full of shit and is a lie and people are now suffering for that lie."
"To save money they let people go home and break the bubble for a week."
"Not just Flashpoint peoples decision, they have a partner that handles the production." (hinting FACEIT)
"People are trapped in hotels essentially under house arrest because of COVID restrictions and has fucked peoples lives up."
"It's all too much, all of this incompetence, all of this greed, maybe we ride it out."
RL says he has talked to the Riot devs (the ones working on Valorant) and says, "They are so cognizant of all the fuck ups and all the problems we have in Counter-Strike."
He continues to say that this is factored into their business plan and that we never had a competitor, but just so happens to have one coincide, when we are at our worst.
CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association
"Who does this union really fucking serve?"
RL believes that the CSPPA is a mockery.
He points out the hypocrisy that they wouldn't strike for the pros who were kicked out of ESL Pro League, or for Jamppi or dream3r.
He also says ESL paid CSPPA and are racketeering and many other TOs have to pay them to get their "seal of approval"
He says they would strong-arm TOs saying "well if you don't give us the money, these guys are so we'll just have to commit to playing their event."
Also points out that they will strike against a competitor they are not in agreement with (Flashpoint)
RL: "It's what it says about every other time you haven't done it and it's about every time you don't do it now moving forward." "The issues they've chosen to ignore this year alone are embarrassing."
Then he points out that there was no strike for Valve qualifiers even if we have no major but Jamppi and dream3r can't play in them.
"and Valve have said 'Oh yeah we know actually their stories are accurate, Jamppi didn't cheat, now in a legally binding document. Yep dream3r did have his account hacked in a LAN café', but they still can't play. Where is the fucking solidarity? Gone. Doesn't exist. It's not important [because] it doesn't affect you." "That's what the union does right now, it looks after all the tier 1 people."
He says the CSPPA doesn't represent all players all the time and has driven a divide where you have the haves and have-nots
"We have a tier of players that operate with impunity and do not help their tier 2 or tier 3 players out at all." "If you are not a tier 1 player you do not matter, they don't event ask your opinion."
He tells chrisJ to admit and own the fact that the reason he didn't speak up during the ESL Pro League debacle is because it didn't affect him
"They are looking after some players at the expense of other players. How the fuck is that a union?"
He says the BLAST situation is a reasonable dispute and supports the players but is not the right time for a strike and have not even identified the correct enemy
He thinks players are lashing out now due to previous incidents and are upset that BLAST are working with ESIC
He stated that CSPPA shouldn't beefing with ESIC and they should be working in harmony
He says what they need to do is talk with the teams/organizations that have sold that right to BLAST
RL: "Your employers, the people who pay you that massive exorbitant salaries, when you don't stream and you don't do interviews and you offer no value beyond your ability to click heads and you get 25k dollars a month." "Why don't you talk to them about it? Oh right. You're happy to take away BLAST's paper, but you don't want to risk your own."
"I am seeing such unbelievable cowardice from the players here with the battles you choose."
"Where was the strike action when in the qualifiers for the world championship, there were teams and players engaged in huge conflicts of interest?" "Where was the strike action when your image rights were taken and sold to every league you've ever been in every union type organization you've ever been associated with like, WESA, to your org every time you sign a contract, to the leagues you play in."
"Your image rights are essentially worthless now, there's about 10 fucking separate parties that have them, and how many of them are giving you anything for it? Not much pretty much your org by the way."
"That's a big issue. Your image is you, your image is your brand. What are you doing about that? Nothing."
He is also angry at SirScoots who is "popping off" at people on Twitter who all want the same thing, which is 'A unified Counter-Strike scene for everybody, that works for everybody, that has a sustained ecosystem that nourishes everybody.' "We don't have that now."
He also says their rankings are a joke
"Just so happened, oh look TACO, that very important prominent member of the board, we pushed his team artificially up when they weren't even in the fucking top 20, not by a long shot."
He also says the ineptitude of the CSPPA cost Flashpoint a monitor sponsor
"Is it really a player association or is it like a fucking agency at this point"
ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission
"They have been put in an impossible position."
RL says that Ian Smith, the founder of ESIC and who was done work in mainstream sports, is a good and honorable man who has dedicated his life to integrity and sports. He takes on both sides, ensuring match fixers are punished, but also doing appeals and ensuring those punishments were fair.
"ESIC is a tiny organization" and are in need of money, "They didn't run a grift like the CSPPA did."
"Saying 'you want our support and you want the players to turn up you better pay us.' They don't do that."
"Had startup seed money from MTG and since then they've been pecking shit with the hens."
Ian Smith made sure that the money given by MTG (Modern Times Group, parent company of ESL, ESEA, DreamHack) was nothing more than startup money and wouldn't be in debt to them
Ian Smith sat down with other TO's not part of MTG and wanted to partner with them. They declined and called ESIC "ESL spies and we will never align ourselves with you"
"They only were just able to afford, hiring a PR guy on a full time salary to deal with the press and send out those releases you've seen, this year."
"They have a tiny group of staff investigating these things and they have taken on the biggest problems in our scene: the cheating, the match fixing."
ESIC have had "unprecedented levels of cheating to deal with, because there's something wrong with our scene ever since we went online. There's something wrong with it, everyone's lost their fucking pride and self-respect and they got no passion for it anymore, so they think fuck it, what's in it for me?"
He calls out coaches who are talking about players rights when they would rob and steal from them.
Also says more coaches being banned are coming
He also points out flaws in community's reaction to the punishments to coaches bans: "Half of the cunts still have jobs and some of the cunts got new jobs. We didn't even shun the cheating coaches."
ESIC have "found I think another 2 or 3 exploits like that one and they are investigating them all right now, it's going on right now."
"I know that there are going to be more names getting banned, again."
"So they're doing that on a skeleton crew while, investigating 3 continents worth of match fixing in MDL and semi-pro level CS." "They're doing this with half a dozen people." "They don't have any money or any help. People barely even fucking cooperate with them, they are treated like pariahs. It's ridiculous."
"Why are the CSPPA popping off at ESIC on my Twitter timeline, when you should be working together." "because its all about what's in it in for me." "2020, the online era of CS: 'What is in it for me?' How can I cheat, how can I get my paper, how can I bleed this scene one last time before I fuck off and play shooty shooty bang bang Riot Games babys first fps."
RL says that in the CIS region, teams have gone to tournaments and have been eliminated multiple times by the same team. We found out they were cheating and those players who lost, have been cut from their roster, careers ended because of cheaters.
Stream Sniping
"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"
RL talks about how there is no integrity from dead (the player), always denying when caught doing something
On the topic of 'BLAST never said we couldn't stream snipe': "Lies, BLAST never said you could do that, they had to sort of retcon it." "because what happened after that they fucking started snitching and squealing"
"Suddenly you had like, 10 of the top 15 teams in the world, staring into the abyss of being banned for 6-12 months in line with ESIC recommendations."
He says that ESIC was put in a tough situation and couldn't enforce the bans because it would have resulted in killing CS. What resulted was, BLAST, ESIC, and teams came together and gave them a warning and told them, in RL's words "don't do this again or you're gonna get got."
He then says the top teams brushed this off and didn't give a fuck
The new MiBR team playing Flashpoint, that wasn't involved in the previous incidents are doing it again (stream sniping). He gave credit to Flashpoint for the quick resolution and punishment and respect for cogu's response to the situation.
"ESIC came out and said, once more, 'Guys, zero tolerance from now on.'" RL then got upset at community's reaction calling ESIC "pussies" for their non enforcement and said if we want competitive CS we cant ban the top 10 teams.
He points out how players have no integrity and will do anything for an edge as long as they won't get detected or banned or it's within a grey area.
"All of this shit was mad avoidable, even in the pandemic era."
He talks about why aren't we filming them. Why aren't there representatives for leagues and tournaments making sure players aren't cheating?
Match Fixing
"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."
RL says that gambling and skins betting which existed in moderation was "accelerated and blown up by the Call of Duty greedy fucks."
"Never forget TmarTn was on the board of EnVyUs." "His website, CSGOLotto, they had a bunch of off-the-books sponsorships." "NBK promoted them. People forget."
"Those people who had access to the skins, go to the players" "Even people like s1mple, best player in the world, even he scammed knives and skins off fucking fans."
Owners of skin casino sites would approach pros and lend them skins to use in tournaments and possibly keep them after reaching a deal
Players would tip off inside info about matches and teams in exchange for skins. Info such as: roster changes, how they played in scrims
They would use this info to bet and subvert the odds on their sites. "That happened religiously, I can't even tell you how many times it happened."
"I had access to the biggest database of information, from an inside betting circle in NA, and it would take information and screenshots from other pro players, who were feeding them info in exchange for money or skins."
"Some of these players are still playing." "Incredibly, there are players still in the CSPPA today, complaining about the BLAST recordings, that were embroiled in this murky shit back then."
RL also says that there were tournaments where teams contrived with each other, who should throw, who should win.
"There's a handful of people that are trying to fucking clean it up, and you think you get something over the line and you see something like the CSPPA and it's run by corrupt fucking chuckle heads, and now you've got another corrupt body you have to fight on a fucking daily basis, it's demoralizing."
"It's too far gone. Our entire semi-professional scene is compromised."
"It's rife guys, I'm not going to lie any more. It's not just China, it's not just Russia, it's here, it's NA, it's Europe, it's Australia, so much more than you think, so much more than we can prove."
"I get sent chat logs all the time […] and they're morons, these players, short-sighted, amateur, morons and they're doing it on WhatsApp." People would get cut from the bets because they want to make more money, then they leak the logs. He says, from the chat logs, they spread "little" bets across every site they can (400 to 1k dollars) to prevent shifting odds
He says the scumbags who've fucked off to Valorant will do the same there if Riot doesn't do something and says Valorant "is an esports scene heading for a very early fall based on the sheer volume of scumbags that are already there."
"That's tier 2 CS in a nutshell these days. They know they're never going to play in a major, so what's the punishment?"
"All of these tier 2 fucks that are fixing games now they are like the fucking mafia compared to iBuyPower" "These guys are working with organized criminals to fix entire seasons worth of games. That's what's going on in your tier 2 CS."
"I'm literally being told that there are players fixing games at all levels of Chinese esports and motherfuckers with guns are turning up to team houses and stuff."
North America
"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."
RL says the Call of Duty "goblins" that destroyed CS for years are the same people who are now trying to leave CS. "The nerve to treat a game where the fans, and the community, and the TO's were nothing but good to you." "To just kick the players out now and go and leave and say 'It just doesn't make financial sense.' Oh you'll slither back when we have a major though for them stickers won't you."
There's a cascading effect in NA where people don't bother with CS anymore and people like Chaos suffer.
He says NA team owners are incompetent for always wanting it easy and always wanting a guarantee on their investment without skill or nuance.
RL says he would be able to market a team correctly and would have a good ROI and also points out how TSM wouldn't even be bothered to tweet that their team, which was one of the best in the world, was playing at the Major.
He also says not all NA owners are like that, compliments and respects Jason Lake who nearly lost everything to keep Complexity going.
He then calls out the incompetence in Infinite Esports when they acquired OpTic Gaming and bought an Indian CS team.
He says HECZ is not to blame here and that they couldn't tell forsaken was cheating when it was so obvious.
They measured his reaction time to the likes of dev1ce and s1mple
When an enemy showed up on his screen he won that duel something like 44% of the time
"was like the number 1 player in the world statistically"
He brought a laptop to their bootcamp and refused to use the high end PCs that hey provided
He respects Andy Miller (NRG CEO) and HECZ but says that the attitude of not being able to easily monetize their teams is "piss weak" and there needs to be a risk.
He says Chaos EC shouldn't be cutting their roster and should be competent enough to be able to figure out how to make money off their team.
He says there are still opportunities in NA and people are panicking and pulling out, and says Valorant will be the same if not worse.
He also says "bums" who couldn't even get out of groups in NA competitions, are making crazy money in Valorant and says it will continue to inflate.
He also said that he heard rumors that EG (Evil Geniuses) are done.
He also thinks that the rumors of a Valve franchised league from before was sparked up from "these lazy fabled weak NA fucking team owners basically trying to see if Valve would bite at the hook if it was dangled and they didn't"
Slasher says NA team owners are really in favor of franchised leagues because they want to make more money. "Most of the powerful team owners right now are on board with ditching this third party organization structure, or they are trying to play this power politics with all the TOs, and that is contributing to a lot of the problems there"
RL says that Riot has proved they can run a franchised league (LCS) and will be profitable in 2021 which is what a lot of team owners care about and says the competition will only serve to snatch people away from CS.
RL continues to say, "I am so sick and tired of what we have done to this scene, I am just exhausted with it." "I think we have legitimately fucked it, I really think we have. I think we're staring into almost like a CGS (Championship Gaming Series) wasteland in NA." "Counter-Strike esports is a fucking joke."
Talent
"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."
RL says that people like Sean Gares and ddk switching over to Valorant isn't for financial reasons because they are making less over there.
He points out that TO's can't even give talent a 3 month in advance calendar.
Because of the pandemic TO's won't hire certain people and some people are working more hours for the same money.
He says we as a community don't respect journalists enough which is why we don't have good journalists.
He also says DeKay is leaving the scene soon and that Thorin is close to leaving also
He says he had to talk a caster down from quitting and was struggling to find reasons.
He says that DreamHack told Vince they would hire him but not if he wants to stick with dusT and says that this is the norm in esports. "Constant leveraging of people against each other." and says this is why we don't have a talent union.
New gen casters are getting put into shit situations and the community's reaction to them is adding fuel to the fire
He says the reason Moses left was because of the terrible conditions
He says that Anders had to constantly leave his family and kid because someone fucked up or broke promises and had to constantly tell his kid to their face that "daddy can't be home this weekend."
He says that esports has always been a lie to sell you this dream, "Meanwhile there's about 2% of the cunts getting all the checks."
Valve
"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"
Slasher says that the larger aspect of esports as a whole compared to other entertainment mediums and Valve's lack of inattention are the bigger problems. He continues saying that the fact that Valve let their game be ran as an esport, they need to take on the responsibilities of it.
Both Slasher and RL wants Valve to take control but not on the level of Riot Games, there needs to be a balance.
In case it was ever a question: Gabe Newell has been to 0 CSGO Majors.
RL calls Valve out saying they could have done something during the gambling era.
He says Valve used to come to the majors, but doesn't think they do anymore.
RL had met with Valve at the Cluj-Napoca Major and had tried to appeal iBP's indefinite punishment and had also gave Brax's life story:
A recent family member passed away, they had lost a lot of income, they had to live in trailer, iBuyPower did not pay any salaries, and was pressured by family to make money who didn't support his career.
RL said that Valve told him, "How dare you try and make us feel guilty." "We shouldn't feel bad about enforcing the only thing that matters that we need to make players afraid of: cheating and match fixing"
RL also tried to share other info about match fixing and nothing came of it
RL points out that Source 2 or a new engine is not something you will want based on the experience of transitioning from CS 1.6 to CS:S. "Valve's track record with brand new engines being launched, not fucking great from what I remember."
Slasher says "If there is anything the community should do, is pressure Valve to hire a community manager."
They say that we need a commissioner, a community manager (not the person who runs the Twitter who posts memes all day), then we need to have a circuit
RL reiterates that Valve doesn't care about CS esports and says they need to change the culture at Valve to make them care about CS esports
Slasher says a systemic problem is making it so working on CSGO would be a bad decision for you as an employee for Valve
He also hasn't talked to Valve in ages and have sent over bugs and cheats and doesn't get emails back anymore
Slasher says we should be directing attention at the developer leads, pointing out Ido Magal, if he even is still the project lead
RL thinks that Ido and Brian are the only people that "vaguely even give a fuck about CS" and were the only people that RL recalled that actually read Reddit and paid attention from time to time
"It is really fucking precarious. Somebody has got to step the fuck up and start giving a shit"
Slasher suggests org owners, with CSPPA, with ESIC, with TOs have a concerted effort against Valve
"Riot Games are doing better things than Valve in the esports space" which is something RL didn't think he'd say.
"People who used to be talent, working with unions, arguing with other talent, when the unions fucked them over, can't understand their perspective, TOs fucking over broadcast talent, broadcast talent wanting to leave and go and work for orgs, orgs having no money, Valve might take coaches away because all the coaches are cheating, ESIC has about 4 people in a fucking call doing the investigations, everyone thinks they're spies for ESL, ESL are just the evil fucking overlords wanting to rule the scene and will just somehow, like cockroaches outliving a nuclear bomb, and Valve are in a fucking holiday in Hawaii thinking about the next Dota character because they don't give a fuck about us."
Closing Statements
"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."
RL compared the Counter-Strike scene to the people on the Titanic who ran around with guns robbing people while the boat was sinking.
"We have given up on being a respectable esports scene." "We are now a conduit to make money for those who want to just milk it, just have one last ride, one last roll of the dice. It's done." "What a fucking mess. What have we done to our fucking scene?"
"There's just too much self-interest driving all of this." "I don't see a way we stop the dominoes." "When it's that bad, when there's that many dishonest people that ESIC have to come out and say that if we punish them all there's no one left. What does that tell you?"
"How many opportunities have we had to clean house? How many times have we said, 'this must never happen again', and another scandal." "The entire skins betting operations was the biggest criminal conspiracy in esports ever executed and no one has been punished for it." "The people who could be driving that don't want to."
"Right now people are fans of those organizations because the scene has value. It is worth being a fan of Astralis because they are excellent at Counter-Strike. It is worth being a fan of s1mple because he is the best player in Counter-Strike, maybe the exception of ZywOo. If the scene is devalued, if the scene loses its meaning, those things lose its meaning too, and people will leave, people will stop tuning into the games. I have seen it happen in multiple esports, this is not my first time at the rodeo. I am getting big Brood War vibes right now and I don't like it."
"The role you play in all of this as fans, as viewers, as listeners, as consumers of esports content, it's absolutely imperative that you know who the good guys are. It's absolutely imperative that you use your voice. It's absolutely imperative that when things are bad, you know who, at least, is trying to make them good, and you have to apply your criticism to the right targets."
He continues saying it's no good in continuing to attack ESIC and saying how they are bad, ESIC have it hard
He says CSPPA are on the right side of the argument on BLAST but have been on the wrong side of many arguments many times.
"If you are not willing to stand along side the weakest member of the union, with the least amount of influence, and the least amount of power, then it is not a union at all and you shouldn't pose as one." "You wanna serve a bunch of special interest do it, everyone else in esports fucking does, but do not pose as something you are not." "We love the players. I've been fighting for players rights for as long as I've been able to, but the CSPPA is not what we needed."
"They are not applying the pressure to the right people, they are not fighting the right battles, they are not helping their weaker members."
He says what orgs have done by keeping or hiring coaches is bad. "When you give up on holding an appreciable standard, you've lost the scene" "Competition matters, rules matter, punishments matter, achievements matter, excellence matters" "If you start stripping that away, you have nothing" "You guys need to take that knowledge and apply it sensibly."
"Valve has sold you all down the river, they sold everyone in the esports scene down the river, tournament organizers are selling their talent down the river. Don't hate on them for sounding tired after a 16 hour day. Don't hate on them because the hype for a matchup they've seen for the 20th time in the past 3 months, they can't be as excited or it sounds contrived. Support your guys, they're there for you, these are your people."
"This community has got to start acting like one for the first fucking time. Just put the petty shit away, let's try and fix this fucking scene while we still have one to save."
"You can't rely on Valve, you can't rely on ESL, you can't rely on the CSPPA, you can't rely on anyone." "Once again, it's gonna be the likes of us, the amateurs, the people who give a fuck, rolling up our sleeves and grafting." "I'm old and tired and I don't want to have to do it again. People need to pick up the torch and do it."
"Like Michal did, like Dudenhoeffer did. You see something wrong, fix it. You see somebody doing something wrong, call it out. If you think something could be better, let people know."
"Vote with your wallets if you're not happy with the direction Valve goes in. If when we do get to the Major, they serve up another subpar, same old bullshit stickers and signatures package again, do not buy it."
"You're a powerful block and if you use it correctly we can fucking avert this disaster."
"I'm not doing another year in this broken, bust-up fucking scene, where everyone is miserable, everyone is broke, everyone is tired, and everyone is trying to fucking rob everyone else, blind, while the fucking people who are meant to be protecting you, are just fucking enhancing it and lining their own pockets."
"I'm not doing it anymore and you shouldn't want to do it either."
"I stand by every fucking thing I said. I mean it, because this game fucking matters to me, this scene fucking matters to me. I put my life into this, my adult life, and to see it in this state is fucking sad."
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